Spatiotemporal modeling of the potential impact of climate change on shifts in bioclimatic zones in Morocco.
Bioclimatic modeling
Climate change
GCM
Impact assessment
Morocco
Journal
Environmental monitoring and assessment
ISSN: 1573-2959
Titre abrégé: Environ Monit Assess
Pays: Netherlands
ID NLM: 8508350
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
09 Sep 2024
09 Sep 2024
Historique:
received:
28
01
2024
accepted:
27
08
2024
medline:
9
9
2024
pubmed:
9
9
2024
entrez:
9
9
2024
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
This study aims to contribute to the understanding of the impact of climate change on bioclimatic zones in Morocco, providing insights into potential shifts and emphasizing the need for adaptation measures to protect vulnerable species and ecosystems. To achieve this, we utilized eight general circulation models (GCMs) to simulate climate conditions under two representative concentration scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for two future time points (2050 and 2070). The modeling of bioclimatic zone shifts was accomplished through the implementation of the random forest (RF) algorithm. Our findings indicate that the subhumid and humid areas are expected to experience the most significant shifts, particularly toward the semi-arid zone. Shifts from subhumid to semi-arid were the most pronounced, ranging from 17.91% (RCP8.5 in 2070) to 25.68% (RCP8.5 in 2050), while shifts from humid to semi-arid ranged from 10.16% (RCP4.5 in 2050) to 22.27% (RCP8.5 in 2070). The Saharan and arid zones are expected to be the least affected, with less than 1% and 11% of their original extent expected to change, respectively. Moreover, our results suggest that forest species such as Atlas cedar and oaks are among the most vulnerable to these shifts. Overall, this study highlights the inevitability of climate change's impact on Moroccan ecosystems and provides a basis for adaptation measures, especially considering the species adapted to the bioclimatic conditions that will dominate the respective affected regions.
Identifiants
pubmed: 39249123
doi: 10.1007/s10661-024-13077-0
pii: 10.1007/s10661-024-13077-0
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
907Informations de copyright
© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.
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