The temporal trend of tuberculosis burden in an aging population in China: a secondary data analysis from the GBD 2019.

Humans China / epidemiology Aged Middle Aged Incidence Tuberculosis / epidemiology Male Female Adult Global Burden of Disease / trends Aged, 80 and over Disability-Adjusted Life Years / trends Young Adult Adolescent HIV Infections / epidemiology Child Age Distribution Quality-Adjusted Life Years Secondary Data Analysis
Age effect Aging China Disease burden Tuberculosis

Journal

BMC pulmonary medicine
ISSN: 1471-2466
Titre abrégé: BMC Pulm Med
Pays: England
ID NLM: 100968563

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
27 Sep 2024
Historique:
received: 26 03 2024
accepted: 19 09 2024
medline: 28 9 2024
pubmed: 28 9 2024
entrez: 28 9 2024
Statut: epublish

Résumé

The rapid population aging in China has been a big challenge to achieve the goal of ending the global tuberculosis (TB) epidemic. This study aimed to describe the temporal trend of TB burden in China during 1990 ∼ 2019 and to evaluate the effect of age, period, and birth cohort on domestic TB burden, with a specific focus on the elderly. The trends of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of TB among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) negative people were described using the data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. Join-point regression model was applied to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of TB burden for different age groups. Age-period-cohort (APC) model was fitted for incidence and mortality, and relative risks (RR) were computed for each age group. In 2019, the highest TB deaths (5.23 thousand, 95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 4.38 ∼ 6.17) and DALYs (155.18 thousand, 95%UI: 126.47 ∼ 190.55) were observed in the HIV-negative population aged 70 ∼ 74 years in China. The proportion of those aged ≥ 60 years in newly diagnosed TB patients without HIV coinfection increased from 23.82% in 1990 to 37.54% in 2019, while TB deaths rose from 48.70 to 68.64%. During the past 30 years, the AAPC of age-standardized mortality (-7.77, confidence interval [CI]: -8.44∼ -7.10) and DALYs (-7.48, 95% CI: -7.98∼ -6.97) among HIV-negative individuals have shown a decrease, while much slower in the age groups above 70-year-old. The period effect and cohort effect contributed to the decline of TB incidence and mortality, but the age effect led to increasing TB mortality, especially among the ages of 85 ∼ 89 years (RR = 4.59, 95% CI: 4.25 ∼ 4.95). The burden of TB remains considerable in the elderly population in China. More actions should be taken to improve case finding and the quality of TB healthcare for this high-risk population.

Sections du résumé

BACKGROUND BACKGROUND
The rapid population aging in China has been a big challenge to achieve the goal of ending the global tuberculosis (TB) epidemic. This study aimed to describe the temporal trend of TB burden in China during 1990 ∼ 2019 and to evaluate the effect of age, period, and birth cohort on domestic TB burden, with a specific focus on the elderly.
METHODS METHODS
The trends of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of TB among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) negative people were described using the data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. Join-point regression model was applied to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) of TB burden for different age groups. Age-period-cohort (APC) model was fitted for incidence and mortality, and relative risks (RR) were computed for each age group.
RESULTS RESULTS
In 2019, the highest TB deaths (5.23 thousand, 95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 4.38 ∼ 6.17) and DALYs (155.18 thousand, 95%UI: 126.47 ∼ 190.55) were observed in the HIV-negative population aged 70 ∼ 74 years in China. The proportion of those aged ≥ 60 years in newly diagnosed TB patients without HIV coinfection increased from 23.82% in 1990 to 37.54% in 2019, while TB deaths rose from 48.70 to 68.64%. During the past 30 years, the AAPC of age-standardized mortality (-7.77, confidence interval [CI]: -8.44∼ -7.10) and DALYs (-7.48, 95% CI: -7.98∼ -6.97) among HIV-negative individuals have shown a decrease, while much slower in the age groups above 70-year-old. The period effect and cohort effect contributed to the decline of TB incidence and mortality, but the age effect led to increasing TB mortality, especially among the ages of 85 ∼ 89 years (RR = 4.59, 95% CI: 4.25 ∼ 4.95).
CONCLUSIONS CONCLUSIONS
The burden of TB remains considerable in the elderly population in China. More actions should be taken to improve case finding and the quality of TB healthcare for this high-risk population.

Identifiants

DOI: 10.1186/s12890-024-03293-2 PMID: 39334014
pubmed: 39334014
doi: 10.1186/s12890-024-03293-2
pii: 10.1186/s12890-024-03293-2
doi:

Types de publication

Journal Article

Langues

eng

Sous-ensembles de citation

IM

Pagination

476

Subventions

Organisme : National Natural Science Foundation of China
ID : No. 82173581

Informations de copyright

© 2024. The Author(s).

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Auteurs

Beibei Che (B)

Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200032, People's Republic of China.
Key Laboratory of Health Technology Assessment, National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200032, People's Republic of China.

Xubin Zheng (X)

Clinic and Research Centre of Tuberculosis, Shanghai Key Laboratory of Tuberculosis, Shanghai Pulmonary Hospital, School of Medicine, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200433, People's Republic of China.

Bin Chen (B)

Department of Tuberculosis Control and Prevention, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, 310051, People's Republic of China.

Yinghong Lu (Y)

Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200032, People's Republic of China.
Key Laboratory of Health Technology Assessment, National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200032, People's Republic of China.

Yuge Zhang (Y)

Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200032, People's Republic of China.
Key Laboratory of Health Technology Assessment, National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200032, People's Republic of China.

Biao Xu (B)

Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200032, People's Republic of China. bxu@shmu.edu.cn.
Key Laboratory of Health Technology Assessment, National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200032, People's Republic of China. bxu@shmu.edu.cn.

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