Epidemiological changes of scarlet fever before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic in Chongqing, China: a 19-year surveillance and prediction study.
COVID-19
Epidemiology
SARIMA model
Scarlet fever
Journal
BMC public health
ISSN: 1471-2458
Titre abrégé: BMC Public Health
Pays: England
ID NLM: 100968562
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
30 Sep 2024
30 Sep 2024
Historique:
received:
02
09
2023
accepted:
17
09
2024
medline:
1
10
2024
pubmed:
1
10
2024
entrez:
30
9
2024
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
This study aimed to investigate the epidemiological changes in scarlet fever before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic (2005-2023) and predict the incidence of the disease in 2024 and 2025 in Chongqing Municipality, Southwest China. Descriptive analysis was used to summarize the characteristics of the scarlet fever epidemic. Spatial autocorrelation analysis was utilized to explore the distribution pattern of the disease, and the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was constructed to predict its incidence in 2024 and 2025. Between 2005 and 2023, 9,593 scarlet fever cases were reported in Chongqing, which resulted in an annual average incidence of 1.6694 per 100,000 people. Children aged 3-7 were the primary victims of this disease, with the highest average incidence found among children aged 6 (5.0002 per 100,000 people). Kindergarten children were the dominant infected population, accounting for as much as 54.32% of cases, followed by students (34.09%). The incidence for the male was 1.51 times greater than that for the female. The monthly distribution of the incidence showed a bimodal pattern, with one peak occurring between April and June and another in November or December. The spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed that scarlet fever cases were markedly clustered; the areas with higher incidence were mainly concentrated in Chongqing's urban areas and its adjacent districts, and gradually spreading to remote areas after 2020. The incidence of scarlet fever increased by 106.54% and 39.33% in the post-upsurge period (2015-2019) and the dynamic zero-COVID period (2020-2022), respectively, compared to the pre-upsurge period (2005-2014) (P < 0.001). During the dynamic zero-COVID period, the incidence of scarlet fever decreased by 68.61%, 25.66%, and 10.59% (P < 0.001) in 2020, 2021, and 2022, respectively, compared to the predicted incidence. In 2023, after the dynamic zero-COVID period, the reported cases decreased to 1.5168 per 100,000 people unexpectedly instead of increasing. The cases of scarlet fever are predicted to increase in 2024 (675 cases) and 2025 (705 cases). Children aged 3-7 years are the most affected population, particularly males, and kindergartens and primary schools serving as transmission hotspots. It is predicted that the high incidence of scarlet fever in Chongqing will persist in 2024 and 2025, and the outer districts (counties) beyond urban zone would bear the brunt of the impact. Therefore, imminent public health planning and resource allocation should be focused within those areas.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
This study aimed to investigate the epidemiological changes in scarlet fever before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic (2005-2023) and predict the incidence of the disease in 2024 and 2025 in Chongqing Municipality, Southwest China.
METHODS
METHODS
Descriptive analysis was used to summarize the characteristics of the scarlet fever epidemic. Spatial autocorrelation analysis was utilized to explore the distribution pattern of the disease, and the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was constructed to predict its incidence in 2024 and 2025.
RESULTS
RESULTS
Between 2005 and 2023, 9,593 scarlet fever cases were reported in Chongqing, which resulted in an annual average incidence of 1.6694 per 100,000 people. Children aged 3-7 were the primary victims of this disease, with the highest average incidence found among children aged 6 (5.0002 per 100,000 people). Kindergarten children were the dominant infected population, accounting for as much as 54.32% of cases, followed by students (34.09%). The incidence for the male was 1.51 times greater than that for the female. The monthly distribution of the incidence showed a bimodal pattern, with one peak occurring between April and June and another in November or December. The spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed that scarlet fever cases were markedly clustered; the areas with higher incidence were mainly concentrated in Chongqing's urban areas and its adjacent districts, and gradually spreading to remote areas after 2020. The incidence of scarlet fever increased by 106.54% and 39.33% in the post-upsurge period (2015-2019) and the dynamic zero-COVID period (2020-2022), respectively, compared to the pre-upsurge period (2005-2014) (P < 0.001). During the dynamic zero-COVID period, the incidence of scarlet fever decreased by 68.61%, 25.66%, and 10.59% (P < 0.001) in 2020, 2021, and 2022, respectively, compared to the predicted incidence. In 2023, after the dynamic zero-COVID period, the reported cases decreased to 1.5168 per 100,000 people unexpectedly instead of increasing. The cases of scarlet fever are predicted to increase in 2024 (675 cases) and 2025 (705 cases).
CONCLUSIONS
CONCLUSIONS
Children aged 3-7 years are the most affected population, particularly males, and kindergartens and primary schools serving as transmission hotspots. It is predicted that the high incidence of scarlet fever in Chongqing will persist in 2024 and 2025, and the outer districts (counties) beyond urban zone would bear the brunt of the impact. Therefore, imminent public health planning and resource allocation should be focused within those areas.
Identifiants
pubmed: 39350134
doi: 10.1186/s12889-024-20116-5
pii: 10.1186/s12889-024-20116-5
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
2674Subventions
Organisme : Scientific Research Project of Chongqing Talent Plan
ID : cstc2022ycjh-bgzxm0251
Organisme : Scientific Research Project of Chongqing Talent Plan
ID : cstc2022ycjh-bgzxm0251
Organisme : Scientific Research Project of Chongqing Talent Plan
ID : cstc2022ycjh-bgzxm0251
Organisme : Scientific Research Project of Chongqing Talent Plan
ID : cstc2022ycjh-bgzxm0251
Organisme : Scientific Research Project of Chongqing Talent Plan
ID : cstc2022ycjh-bgzxm0251
Organisme : Scientific Research Project of Chongqing Talent Plan
ID : cstc2022ycjh-bgzxm0251
Organisme : Scientific Research Project of Chongqing Talent Plan
ID : cstc2022ycjh-bgzxm0251
Organisme : Scientific Research Project of Chongqing Talent Plan
ID : cstc2022ycjh-bgzxm0251
Organisme : the Key Research and Development Project in the Health Field of Chongqing
ID : CSTC2021jscx-gksb-N0003
Organisme : the Key Research and Development Project in the Health Field of Chongqing
ID : CSTC2021jscx-gksb-N0003
Organisme : the Key Research and Development Project in the Health Field of Chongqing
ID : CSTC2021jscx-gksb-N0003
Informations de copyright
© 2024. The Author(s).
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