Predictive Factors for the Development of Gallbladder Necrosis.

Introduction Acute cholecystitis is a common complication of gallstone disease. Likewise, gallbladder necrosis is a complication of cholecystitis associated with higher risks of morbidity and mortality. Identification of risk factors which portend to gallbladder necrosis is key in prioritizing the management of higher-risk patients. This study aimed to identify such factors that predict the development of gallbladder necrosis. Method A retrospective review of all patients undergoing emergency cholecystectomy in a tertiary hospital over a two-year period was performed. Gallbladder necrosis was diagnosed on histopathological examination of operative specimens. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to determine risk factors for gallbladder necrosis. Results A total of 163 patients underwent acute cholecystectomy and 43 (26%) had proven gallbladder necrosis. Multivariable analysis demonstrated that elevated white cell count (WCC) (OR 1.122, 95%CI 1.031-1.221, p=0.007), elevated C-reactive protein (CRP) (OR 1.004, 95%CI 1.001-1.008, p=0.022) and positive smoking status (OR 5.724, 95%CI 1.323-24.754, p=0.020) were independently predictive of gallbladder necrosis. Notably, advancing age, elevated BMI, diabetes mellitus or American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade were not found to be associated with developing necrosis. Conclusion Patients at risk of gallbladder necrosis include those with higher WCC, CRP, and active smokers. Given the increased potential complications, these risk factors should be identified early in the management of those admitted with gallstone disease to ensure such patients receive aggressive medical therapy alongside timely and guided surgical intervention.

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Human subjects: Consent was obtained or waived by all participants in this study. Animal subjects: All authors have confirmed that this study did not involve animal subjects or tissue. Conflicts of interest: In compliance with the ICMJE uniform disclosure form, all authors declare the following: Payment/services info: All authors have declared that no financial support was received from any organization for the submitted work. Financial relationships: All authors have declared that they have no financial relationships at present or within the previous three years with any organizations that might have an interest in the submitted work. Other relationships: All authors have declared that there are no other relationships or activities that could appear to have influenced the submitted work.