Host-Parasitoid Systems are Vulnerable to Extinction via P-Tipping: Forest Tent Caterpillar as an Example.
Climate change
Extinction
Forest Tent Caterpillar
Host-parasitoid
P-Tipping
population dynamics
Journal
Bulletin of mathematical biology
ISSN: 1522-9602
Titre abrégé: Bull Math Biol
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 0401404
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
16 Oct 2024
16 Oct 2024
Historique:
received:
28
11
2023
accepted:
10
09
2024
medline:
16
10
2024
pubmed:
16
10
2024
entrez:
16
10
2024
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Continuous-time predator-prey models admit limit cycle solutions that are vulnerable to the phenomenon of phase-sensitive tipping (P-tipping): The predator-prey system can tip to extinction following a rapid change in a key model parameter, even if the limit cycle remains a stable attractor. In this paper, we investigate the existence of P-tipping in an analogous discrete-time system: a host-parasitoid system, using the economically damaging forest tent caterpillar as our motivating example. We take the intrinsic growth rate of the consumer as our key parameter, allowing it to vary with environmental conditions in ways consistent with the predictions of global warming. We find that the discrete-time system does admit P-tipping, and that the discrete-time P-tipping phenomenon shares characteristics with the continuous-time one: Both require an Allee effect on the resource population, occur in small subsets of the phase plane, and exhibit stochastic resonance as a function of the autocorrelation in the environmental variability. In contrast, the discrete-time P-tipping phenomenon occurs when the environmental conditions switch from low to high productivity, can occur even if the magnitude of the switch is relatively small, and can occur from multiple disjoint regions in the phase plane.
Identifiants
pubmed: 39412556
doi: 10.1007/s11538-024-01358-1
pii: 10.1007/s11538-024-01358-1
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
138Subventions
Organisme : Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
ID : RGPIN-2022-03589
Informations de copyright
© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to the Society for Mathematical Biology.
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