A conceptual health state diagram for modelling the transmission of a (re)emerging infectious respiratory disease in a human population.
Emerging disease
Epidemic
Mathematical modelling
Pandemic
Reemerging disease
Journal
BMC infectious diseases
ISSN: 1471-2334
Titre abrégé: BMC Infect Dis
Pays: England
ID NLM: 100968551
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
24 Oct 2024
24 Oct 2024
Historique:
received:
11
07
2024
accepted:
30
09
2024
medline:
25
10
2024
pubmed:
25
10
2024
entrez:
25
10
2024
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Mathematical modelling of (re)emerging infectious respiratory diseases among humans poses multiple challenges for modellers, which can arise as a result of limited data and surveillance, uncertainty in the natural history of the disease, as well as public health and individual responses to outbreaks. Here, we propose a COVID-19-inspired health state diagram (HSD) to serve as a foundational framework for conceptualising the modelling process for (re)emerging respiratory diseases, and public health responses, in the early stages of their emergence. The HSD aims to serve as a starting point for reflection on the structure and parameterisation of a transmission model to assess the impact of the (re)emerging disease and the capacity of public health interventions to control transmission. We also explore the adaptability of the HSD to different (re)emerging diseases using the characteristics of three respiratory diseases of historical public health importance. We outline key questions to contemplate when applying and adapting this HSD to (re)emerging infectious diseases and provide reflections on adapting the framework for public health-related interventions.
Identifiants
pubmed: 39448915
doi: 10.1186/s12879-024-10017-8
pii: 10.1186/s12879-024-10017-8
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Letter
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
1198Informations de copyright
© 2024. Crown.
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