Future shifts in climatic conditions promoting northward expansion of the Mediterranean climate in the circum-Mediterranean region.
CMIP6
Climate change
GCMs
MCE
Mediterranean climate
Journal
Environmental monitoring and assessment
ISSN: 1573-2959
Titre abrégé: Environ Monit Assess
Pays: Netherlands
ID NLM: 8508350
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
30 Oct 2024
30 Oct 2024
Historique:
received:
15
05
2024
accepted:
16
10
2024
medline:
30
10
2024
pubmed:
30
10
2024
entrez:
30
10
2024
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
In the upcoming decades, precipitation and temperature patterns are expected to shift in the Mediterranean basin due to global warming, potentially having an influence on the environment and the economy in the area. Using monthly precipitation and temperature data from 15 global climate models (GCMs) developed as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the Mediterranean Climate Envelop (MCE), as defined by Daget's (1977) criteria, is projected under two climate change scenarios: SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, and for two future periods: 2050s and 2070s. According to the findings, the MCE is expected to expand by 3.51 and 4.93% in the 2050s under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively, in comparison to the current state. This expansion is expected to reach 5.28 and 9.87% for SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively, in 2070s. For both situations and durations, MCE contraction would be minor, however, at less than 1%. More than 99% of the present MCE would stay stable proportionately. The northern Mediterranean region is mostly concerned by the MCE's expansion. The SSP2-4.5 scenario predicts that by the 2070s, expansion zones will occupy 674,183 km
Identifiants
pubmed: 39476198
doi: 10.1007/s10661-024-13286-7
pii: 10.1007/s10661-024-13286-7
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
1129Informations de copyright
© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.
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