Changes in urgent and emergency care activity associated with COVID-19 lockdowns in a sub-region in the East of England: Interrupted times series analyses.
COVID-19
/ epidemiology
Humans
England
/ epidemiology
Interrupted Time Series Analysis
Emergency Service, Hospital
/ statistics & numerical data
SARS-CoV-2
Emergency Medical Services
/ statistics & numerical data
Ambulances
/ statistics & numerical data
Female
Male
Middle Aged
Adult
Aged
Ambulatory Care
/ statistics & numerical data
Health Services Accessibility
/ statistics & numerical data
Journal
PloS one
ISSN: 1932-6203
Titre abrégé: PLoS One
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101285081
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
2024
2024
Historique:
received:
05
01
2024
accepted:
27
09
2024
medline:
2
11
2024
pubmed:
2
11
2024
entrez:
1
11
2024
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Access to and use of urgent and emergency care in the United Kingdom's National Health Service reduced during COVID-19 related lockdowns but demand reportedly increased since then. We investigated the impact of COVID-19 on urgent and emergency health care services activity in an eastern England population of 1.1 million. We used health care activity data from a municipal health department, recorded at the level of discrete events (such as visits to hospital or ambulance calls) to compare system activity between 2018-2020 (pre-COVID), 2020-2021 (lockdown) and 2021-2023 (post-lockdown), carrying out interrupted time series analyses to describe changes in activity. Daily emergency department (ED) attendances were 10% (95% confidence interval 9-12%) lower during the lockdown period, and 7% (6-8%) higher in the post-lockdown period than pre-COVID. Attendances arriving by ambulance were 13% (12-14%) lower post-lockdown than pre-COVID, while attendances of arrivals by other means were 17% (16-19%) higher. Post-lockdown, overall attendances were continually reducing. ED waiting times were 45% (44-47%) longer in the post-lockdown period compared to the pre-COVID period and continued to increase post-lockdown. There was a 15% (14-16%) reduction in daily ambulance dispatches post-lockdown versus pre-COVID. Ambulance arrivals with delayed handover to hospital care exceeding 60 minutes increased by 17% (16-18%) post-lockdown versus pre-COVID, and probability of delay showed a continuously upward trend post-lockdown of 20% (19-21%) per year. Patients are facing long waits in EDs to be admitted to hospital, discharged or transferred. This results in delays in ambulances handing over patients and attending to other calls, which may explain decreasing rates of ambulance dispatches. Potential solutions are likely to involve enhancing the flow through and discharge of patients from hospital, and a whole systems approach which considers the capacity of the local health and care infrastructure, including intermediate care and social care.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
Access to and use of urgent and emergency care in the United Kingdom's National Health Service reduced during COVID-19 related lockdowns but demand reportedly increased since then. We investigated the impact of COVID-19 on urgent and emergency health care services activity in an eastern England population of 1.1 million.
METHODS
METHODS
We used health care activity data from a municipal health department, recorded at the level of discrete events (such as visits to hospital or ambulance calls) to compare system activity between 2018-2020 (pre-COVID), 2020-2021 (lockdown) and 2021-2023 (post-lockdown), carrying out interrupted time series analyses to describe changes in activity.
RESULTS
RESULTS
Daily emergency department (ED) attendances were 10% (95% confidence interval 9-12%) lower during the lockdown period, and 7% (6-8%) higher in the post-lockdown period than pre-COVID. Attendances arriving by ambulance were 13% (12-14%) lower post-lockdown than pre-COVID, while attendances of arrivals by other means were 17% (16-19%) higher. Post-lockdown, overall attendances were continually reducing. ED waiting times were 45% (44-47%) longer in the post-lockdown period compared to the pre-COVID period and continued to increase post-lockdown. There was a 15% (14-16%) reduction in daily ambulance dispatches post-lockdown versus pre-COVID. Ambulance arrivals with delayed handover to hospital care exceeding 60 minutes increased by 17% (16-18%) post-lockdown versus pre-COVID, and probability of delay showed a continuously upward trend post-lockdown of 20% (19-21%) per year.
CONCLUSION
CONCLUSIONS
Patients are facing long waits in EDs to be admitted to hospital, discharged or transferred. This results in delays in ambulances handing over patients and attending to other calls, which may explain decreasing rates of ambulance dispatches. Potential solutions are likely to involve enhancing the flow through and discharge of patients from hospital, and a whole systems approach which considers the capacity of the local health and care infrastructure, including intermediate care and social care.
Identifiants
pubmed: 39485775
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0311901
pii: PONE-D-23-42956
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
e0311901Informations de copyright
Copyright: © 2024 Shabuz et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.