Patient-specific predictors of failure to rescue after pancreaticoduodenectomy.
Journal
HPB : the official journal of the International Hepato Pancreato Biliary Association
ISSN: 1477-2574
Titre abrégé: HPB (Oxford)
Pays: England
ID NLM: 100900921
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
03 2019
03 2019
Historique:
received:
05
02
2018
revised:
27
06
2018
accepted:
20
07
2018
pubmed:
26
8
2018
medline:
4
4
2020
entrez:
26
8
2018
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Failure to rescue (FTR) is a recently described outcome metric for quality of care. However, predictors of FTR have not been adequately investigated, particularly after pancreaticoduodenectomy. We aim to identify predictors of FTR after pancreaticoduodenectomy. We reviewed all patients who developed serious morbidity after pancreaticoduodenectomy from 2005 to 2012 in the ACS-NSQIP database. Logistic regression was used to identify preoperative and postoperative risks for 30-day mortality within a development cohort (randomly selected 80%). A score was created using weighted beta coefficients. Predictive accuracy was assessed on the validation cohort (remaining 20%) using a receiver operator characteristic curve and calculating the area under the curve (AUC). The FTR rate was 7.2% after pancreaticoduodenectomy (n = 5,027). We identified 5 independent risk factors: age ≥65 and albumin ≤3.5 g/dL, preoperatively; and development of shock, renal failure, and reintubation, postoperatively. The generated score had an AUC = 0.83 (95% CI, 0.77-0.89) in the validation cohort. Using the score: 1*Albumin ≤3.5 g/dL + 2*Age ≥ 65 + 2*Shock + 5*Renal failure + 5*Reintubation, FTR rates increased with increasing score (p < 0.001). FTR rates have previously been shown to be associated with hospital factors. We show that FTR is also associated with preoperative and postoperative patient-specific factors.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
Failure to rescue (FTR) is a recently described outcome metric for quality of care. However, predictors of FTR have not been adequately investigated, particularly after pancreaticoduodenectomy. We aim to identify predictors of FTR after pancreaticoduodenectomy.
METHODS
We reviewed all patients who developed serious morbidity after pancreaticoduodenectomy from 2005 to 2012 in the ACS-NSQIP database. Logistic regression was used to identify preoperative and postoperative risks for 30-day mortality within a development cohort (randomly selected 80%). A score was created using weighted beta coefficients. Predictive accuracy was assessed on the validation cohort (remaining 20%) using a receiver operator characteristic curve and calculating the area under the curve (AUC).
RESULTS
The FTR rate was 7.2% after pancreaticoduodenectomy (n = 5,027). We identified 5 independent risk factors: age ≥65 and albumin ≤3.5 g/dL, preoperatively; and development of shock, renal failure, and reintubation, postoperatively. The generated score had an AUC = 0.83 (95% CI, 0.77-0.89) in the validation cohort. Using the score: 1*Albumin ≤3.5 g/dL + 2*Age ≥ 65 + 2*Shock + 5*Renal failure + 5*Reintubation, FTR rates increased with increasing score (p < 0.001).
CONCLUSION
FTR rates have previously been shown to be associated with hospital factors. We show that FTR is also associated with preoperative and postoperative patient-specific factors.
Identifiants
pubmed: 30143319
pii: S1365-182X(18)32709-6
doi: 10.1016/j.hpb.2018.07.022
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
283-290Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2018 International Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.