Forecasting Demand for the Typhoid Conjugate Vaccine in Low- and Middle-income Countries.
Africa
Asia
Developing Countries
/ statistics & numerical data
Forecasting
Health Services Needs and Demand
Humans
Immunization Programs
/ organization & administration
Incidence
Models, Biological
Typhoid Fever
/ prevention & control
Typhoid-Paratyphoid Vaccines
/ supply & distribution
Vaccines, Conjugate
World Health Organization
demand forecasting
typhoid conjugate vaccine
typhoid fever
vaccination
Journal
Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America
ISSN: 1537-6591
Titre abrégé: Clin Infect Dis
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 9203213
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
07 03 2019
07 03 2019
Historique:
entrez:
8
3
2019
pubmed:
8
3
2019
medline:
29
5
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
The World Health Organization (WHO) released a position paper in March 2018 calling for integration of a novel typhoid conjugate vaccine (TCV) into routine immunization along with catch-up campaigns for children up to age 15. Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, has committed funding to help resource-constrained countries introduce this vaccine. In this article, the Typhoid Vaccine Acceleration Consortium forecasts demand if WHO recommendations are followed. We built a model of global TCV introductions between 2020 and 2040 to estimate the demand of the vaccine for 133 countries. We estimated each country's year of introduction by examining its estimated incidence of typhoid fever, its history of introducing new vaccines, and any knowledge we have of its engagement with typhoid prevention, including intention to apply for Gavi funding. Our model predicted use in routine infant vaccination as well as campaigns targeting varying proportions of the unvaccinated population up to 15 years of age. Between 2020 and 2025, demand will predominantly come from African countries, many receiving Gavi support. After that, Asian countries generate most demand until 2030, when campaigns are estimated to end. Demand will then track the birth cohort of participating countries, suggesting an annual routine demand between 90 and 100 million doses. Peak demand is likely to occur between 2023 and 2026, approaching 300 million annual doses if campaign implementation is high. In our analysis, target population for catch-up campaigns is the main driver of uncertainty. At peak demand, there is some risk of exceeding presently estimated peak production capacity. Therefore, it will be important to carefully coordinate introductions, especially when accompanied by campaigns targeting large proportions of the eligible population.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
The World Health Organization (WHO) released a position paper in March 2018 calling for integration of a novel typhoid conjugate vaccine (TCV) into routine immunization along with catch-up campaigns for children up to age 15. Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, has committed funding to help resource-constrained countries introduce this vaccine. In this article, the Typhoid Vaccine Acceleration Consortium forecasts demand if WHO recommendations are followed.
METHODS
We built a model of global TCV introductions between 2020 and 2040 to estimate the demand of the vaccine for 133 countries. We estimated each country's year of introduction by examining its estimated incidence of typhoid fever, its history of introducing new vaccines, and any knowledge we have of its engagement with typhoid prevention, including intention to apply for Gavi funding. Our model predicted use in routine infant vaccination as well as campaigns targeting varying proportions of the unvaccinated population up to 15 years of age.
RESULTS
Between 2020 and 2025, demand will predominantly come from African countries, many receiving Gavi support. After that, Asian countries generate most demand until 2030, when campaigns are estimated to end. Demand will then track the birth cohort of participating countries, suggesting an annual routine demand between 90 and 100 million doses. Peak demand is likely to occur between 2023 and 2026, approaching 300 million annual doses if campaign implementation is high.
CONCLUSIONS
In our analysis, target population for catch-up campaigns is the main driver of uncertainty. At peak demand, there is some risk of exceeding presently estimated peak production capacity. Therefore, it will be important to carefully coordinate introductions, especially when accompanied by campaigns targeting large proportions of the eligible population.
Identifiants
pubmed: 30845321
pii: 5371221
doi: 10.1093/cid/ciy1076
pmc: PMC6405267
doi:
Substances chimiques
Typhoid-Paratyphoid Vaccines
0
Vaccines, Conjugate
0
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
S154-S160Informations de copyright
© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.
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