An ordinal model to predict the risk of symptomatic liver failure in patients with cirrhosis undergoing hepatectomy.
Aged
Blood Cell Count
Blood Loss, Surgical
Blood Platelets
Carcinoma, Hepatocellular
/ surgery
Female
Forecasting
/ methods
Hepatectomy
/ adverse effects
Humans
Laparoscopy
Liver Cirrhosis
/ surgery
Liver Failure
/ etiology
Liver Neoplasms
/ surgery
Male
Middle Aged
Models, Statistical
Postoperative Complications
/ etiology
Prognosis
Prospective Studies
Risk
Treatment Outcome
Cirrhosis
Hepatocellular carcinoma
Liver resection
Post-hepatectomy liver failure
Journal
Journal of hepatology
ISSN: 1600-0641
Titre abrégé: J Hepatol
Pays: Netherlands
ID NLM: 8503886
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
11 2019
11 2019
Historique:
received:
20
09
2018
revised:
20
05
2019
accepted:
04
06
2019
pubmed:
17
6
2019
medline:
22
12
2020
entrez:
17
6
2019
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Selection criteria for hepatectomy in patients with cirrhosis are controversial. In this study we aimed to build prognostic models of symptomatic post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) in patients with cirrhosis. This was a cohort study of patients with histologically proven cirrhosis undergoing hepatectomy in 6 French tertiary care hepato-biliary-pancreatic centres. The primary endpoint was symptomatic (grade B or C) PHLF, according to the International Study Group of Liver Surgery's definition. Twenty-six preoperative and 5 intraoperative variables were considered. An ordered ordinal logistic regression model with proportional odds ratio was used with 3 classes: O/A (No PHLF or grade A PHLF), B (grade B PHLF) and C (grade C PHLF). Of the 343 patients included, the main indication was hepatocellular carcinoma (88%). Laparoscopic liver resection was performed in 112 patients. Three-month mortality was 5.25%. The observed grades of PHLF were: 0/A: 61%, B: 28%, C: 11%. Based on the results of univariate analyses, 3 preoperative variables (platelet count, liver remnant volume ratio and intent-to-treat laparoscopy) were retained in a preoperative model and 2 intraoperative variables (per protocol laparoscopy and intraoperative blood loss) were added to the latter in a postoperative model. The preoperative model estimated the probabilities of PHLF grades with acceptable discrimination (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve [AUC] 0.73, B/C vs. 0/A; AUC 0.75, C vs. 0/A/B) and the performance of the postoperative model was even better (AUC 0.77, B/C vs. 0/A; AUC 0.81, C vs. 0/A/B; p <0.001). By accurately predicting the risk of symptomatic PHLF in patients with cirrhosis, the preoperative model should be useful at the selection stage. Prediction can be adjusted at the end of surgery by also considering blood loss and conversion to laparotomy in a postoperative model, which might influence postoperative management. In patients with liver cirrhosis, the risk of a hepatectomy is difficult to appreciate. We propose a statistical tool to estimate this risk, preoperatively and immediately after surgery, using readily available parameters and on online calculator. This model could help to improve the selection of patients with the best risk-benefit profiles for hepatectomy.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND & AIMS
Selection criteria for hepatectomy in patients with cirrhosis are controversial. In this study we aimed to build prognostic models of symptomatic post-hepatectomy liver failure (PHLF) in patients with cirrhosis.
METHODS
This was a cohort study of patients with histologically proven cirrhosis undergoing hepatectomy in 6 French tertiary care hepato-biliary-pancreatic centres. The primary endpoint was symptomatic (grade B or C) PHLF, according to the International Study Group of Liver Surgery's definition. Twenty-six preoperative and 5 intraoperative variables were considered. An ordered ordinal logistic regression model with proportional odds ratio was used with 3 classes: O/A (No PHLF or grade A PHLF), B (grade B PHLF) and C (grade C PHLF).
RESULTS
Of the 343 patients included, the main indication was hepatocellular carcinoma (88%). Laparoscopic liver resection was performed in 112 patients. Three-month mortality was 5.25%. The observed grades of PHLF were: 0/A: 61%, B: 28%, C: 11%. Based on the results of univariate analyses, 3 preoperative variables (platelet count, liver remnant volume ratio and intent-to-treat laparoscopy) were retained in a preoperative model and 2 intraoperative variables (per protocol laparoscopy and intraoperative blood loss) were added to the latter in a postoperative model. The preoperative model estimated the probabilities of PHLF grades with acceptable discrimination (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve [AUC] 0.73, B/C vs. 0/A; AUC 0.75, C vs. 0/A/B) and the performance of the postoperative model was even better (AUC 0.77, B/C vs. 0/A; AUC 0.81, C vs. 0/A/B; p <0.001).
CONCLUSIONS
By accurately predicting the risk of symptomatic PHLF in patients with cirrhosis, the preoperative model should be useful at the selection stage. Prediction can be adjusted at the end of surgery by also considering blood loss and conversion to laparotomy in a postoperative model, which might influence postoperative management.
LAY SUMMARY
In patients with liver cirrhosis, the risk of a hepatectomy is difficult to appreciate. We propose a statistical tool to estimate this risk, preoperatively and immediately after surgery, using readily available parameters and on online calculator. This model could help to improve the selection of patients with the best risk-benefit profiles for hepatectomy.
Identifiants
pubmed: 31203152
pii: S0168-8278(19)30346-0
doi: 10.1016/j.jhep.2019.06.003
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Clinical Trial
Journal Article
Multicenter Study
Observational Study
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
920-929Commentaires et corrections
Type : CommentIn
Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2019 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.