A sliding scale to predict postoperative complications undergoing posterior spine surgery.
Journal
Journal of orthopaedic science : official journal of the Japanese Orthopaedic Association
ISSN: 1436-2023
Titre abrégé: J Orthop Sci
Pays: Japan
ID NLM: 9604934
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Jul 2020
Jul 2020
Historique:
received:
08
04
2019
revised:
11
06
2019
accepted:
17
06
2019
pubmed:
10
7
2019
medline:
1
1
2021
entrez:
10
7
2019
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
There is a lack of consensus of operative time (OT) and estimated blood loss (EBL) for elderly patients based on the predicted risk of complications after posterior spine surgery. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of age, OT, and EBL on the postoperative complication risk and to develop a simple sliding scale. We explored prospectively collected data of consecutive patients who underwent posterior spine surgery in seven tertiary referral hospitals from November 2013 to May 2016. Age (<70, 70-74, 75-79, 80-84, ≥85 years), OT (<2, 2-<3, 3-<4, 4-<5, ≥5 h), and EBL (<500, 500-<1000, 1000-<1500, 1500-<2000, ≥2000 ml) were categorized ranging from 1 (lowest) to 5 (highest). The association between the crude cumulative categories' number and the incidence of complications was analyzed. We further evaluated the association by re-categorizing the cumulative number into three groups (3-4, 5-10, ≥11). Total of 2416 patients (median age: 70 years old) were enrolled and major complications were observed in 75 (3.1%) patients. Age, OT, and EBL showed similar odds ratio (1.18-1.19) as each category increased. The cumulative categories' number fitted the estimate complication risk (Hosmer-Lemeshow P = 0.87), and statistically significant trend was observed between predicted and actual complication rates (Cochran-Armitage test, P < 0.001). When cumulative categories' numbers were stratified into three groups, significant increasing trend of risk were observed (Mantel-Haenszel P < 0.001). Based on the categorical numbers, we proposed a simple sliding scale. Our data indicated that the risk of postoperative complication was associated with cumulative score based on increased age, OT, and EBL. A simple sliding scale was developed based on these factors, which may be useful to predict complication risk after posterior spine surgery.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
There is a lack of consensus of operative time (OT) and estimated blood loss (EBL) for elderly patients based on the predicted risk of complications after posterior spine surgery. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of age, OT, and EBL on the postoperative complication risk and to develop a simple sliding scale.
METHODS
METHODS
We explored prospectively collected data of consecutive patients who underwent posterior spine surgery in seven tertiary referral hospitals from November 2013 to May 2016. Age (<70, 70-74, 75-79, 80-84, ≥85 years), OT (<2, 2-<3, 3-<4, 4-<5, ≥5 h), and EBL (<500, 500-<1000, 1000-<1500, 1500-<2000, ≥2000 ml) were categorized ranging from 1 (lowest) to 5 (highest). The association between the crude cumulative categories' number and the incidence of complications was analyzed. We further evaluated the association by re-categorizing the cumulative number into three groups (3-4, 5-10, ≥11).
RESULTS
RESULTS
Total of 2416 patients (median age: 70 years old) were enrolled and major complications were observed in 75 (3.1%) patients. Age, OT, and EBL showed similar odds ratio (1.18-1.19) as each category increased. The cumulative categories' number fitted the estimate complication risk (Hosmer-Lemeshow P = 0.87), and statistically significant trend was observed between predicted and actual complication rates (Cochran-Armitage test, P < 0.001). When cumulative categories' numbers were stratified into three groups, significant increasing trend of risk were observed (Mantel-Haenszel P < 0.001). Based on the categorical numbers, we proposed a simple sliding scale.
CONCLUSION
CONCLUSIONS
Our data indicated that the risk of postoperative complication was associated with cumulative score based on increased age, OT, and EBL. A simple sliding scale was developed based on these factors, which may be useful to predict complication risk after posterior spine surgery.
Identifiants
pubmed: 31285117
pii: S0949-2658(19)30196-4
doi: 10.1016/j.jos.2019.06.012
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Multicenter Study
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
545-550Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2019. Published by Elsevier B.V.