Post-Pancreatectomy Diabetes Index: A Validated Score Predicting Diabetes Development after Major Pancreatectomy.
Journal
Journal of the American College of Surgeons
ISSN: 1879-1190
Titre abrégé: J Am Coll Surg
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 9431305
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
04 2020
04 2020
Historique:
received:
20
12
2019
accepted:
23
12
2019
pubmed:
26
1
2020
medline:
15
12
2020
entrez:
26
1
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Literature is varied regarding risk factors associated with diabetes development after major pancreatic resection. The aim was to develop and validate a scoring index that preoperatively predicts the development of diabetes after pancreaticoduodenectomy and distal pancreatectomy. In this prospective study, perioperative fasting and postprandial (OGTT, oral glucose tolerance test) plasma glucose, glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), insulin, and c-peptide were measured in select consecutive patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy and distal pancreatectomy by the senior author, from 2007 to 2018. American Diabetes Association definitions were used for glycemic classifications. Statistical analyses included multivariate generalized estimated equation for factor identification and variable weighting; area under the receiver operating curve (ROC) c-statistic for predictive ability, and survival analysis risk score grouping. Of 1,083 included patients with preoperative normoglycemia (253; 23.4%), prediabetes (362; 33.4%), and diabetes (468; 43.2%), the overall postoperative incidence of each diabetic class at 120 months was 152 (14.0%), 466 (43.0%), and 465 (42.9%), respectively. The development and validation groups included 1,023 and 60 patients, respectively. Five factors were identified predicting diabetes development, with a total possible score of 8. The C-statistics for development and validation groups were 0.727 (CI 0.696 to 0.759, p < 0.001) and 0.823 (CI 0.718 to 0.928, p < 0.001), respectively. At a cut point of 3 (sensitivity 0.691, specificity 0.644) the Post-pancreatectomy Diabetes Index (PDI) independently predicted diabetes in development (odds ratio [OR] 4.298, relative risk [RR] 2.486, CI 1.238 to 5.704, p < 0.001) and validation (OR 6.970, RR 2.768, CI 2.182 to 22.261, p < 0.001) groups. The PDI similarly predicted pre-diabetes in development (OR 1.961, RR 1.325, CI 1.202 to 2.564, p < 0.001) and validation (OR 4.255, RR 1.798, CI 1.247 to 14.492, p = 0.021) groups. The Post-pancreatectomy Diabetes Index predicts the development of diabetes and pre-diabetes in patients undergoing major pancreatectomy using routine endocrine laboratories and pre-surgical clinical data.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
Literature is varied regarding risk factors associated with diabetes development after major pancreatic resection. The aim was to develop and validate a scoring index that preoperatively predicts the development of diabetes after pancreaticoduodenectomy and distal pancreatectomy.
STUDY DESIGN
In this prospective study, perioperative fasting and postprandial (OGTT, oral glucose tolerance test) plasma glucose, glycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), insulin, and c-peptide were measured in select consecutive patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy and distal pancreatectomy by the senior author, from 2007 to 2018. American Diabetes Association definitions were used for glycemic classifications. Statistical analyses included multivariate generalized estimated equation for factor identification and variable weighting; area under the receiver operating curve (ROC) c-statistic for predictive ability, and survival analysis risk score grouping.
RESULTS
Of 1,083 included patients with preoperative normoglycemia (253; 23.4%), prediabetes (362; 33.4%), and diabetes (468; 43.2%), the overall postoperative incidence of each diabetic class at 120 months was 152 (14.0%), 466 (43.0%), and 465 (42.9%), respectively. The development and validation groups included 1,023 and 60 patients, respectively. Five factors were identified predicting diabetes development, with a total possible score of 8. The C-statistics for development and validation groups were 0.727 (CI 0.696 to 0.759, p < 0.001) and 0.823 (CI 0.718 to 0.928, p < 0.001), respectively. At a cut point of 3 (sensitivity 0.691, specificity 0.644) the Post-pancreatectomy Diabetes Index (PDI) independently predicted diabetes in development (odds ratio [OR] 4.298, relative risk [RR] 2.486, CI 1.238 to 5.704, p < 0.001) and validation (OR 6.970, RR 2.768, CI 2.182 to 22.261, p < 0.001) groups. The PDI similarly predicted pre-diabetes in development (OR 1.961, RR 1.325, CI 1.202 to 2.564, p < 0.001) and validation (OR 4.255, RR 1.798, CI 1.247 to 14.492, p = 0.021) groups.
CONCLUSIONS
The Post-pancreatectomy Diabetes Index predicts the development of diabetes and pre-diabetes in patients undergoing major pancreatectomy using routine endocrine laboratories and pre-surgical clinical data.
Identifiants
pubmed: 31981618
pii: S1072-7515(20)30078-8
doi: 10.1016/j.jamcollsurg.2019.12.016
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Validation Study
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
393-402.e3Commentaires et corrections
Type : CommentIn
Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2020 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.