Modelling NAFLD disease burden in four Asian regions-2019-2030.
Adult
Age of Onset
Aged
Asian People
/ ethnology
Carcinoma, Hepatocellular
/ epidemiology
Disease Progression
Female
Forecasting
History, 21st Century
Hong Kong
/ epidemiology
Humans
Incidence
Liver Neoplasms
/ epidemiology
Male
Middle Aged
Models, Theoretical
Mortality
/ ethnology
Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease
/ epidemiology
Prevalence
Republic of Korea
/ epidemiology
Singapore
/ epidemiology
Taiwan
/ epidemiology
Journal
Alimentary pharmacology & therapeutics
ISSN: 1365-2036
Titre abrégé: Aliment Pharmacol Ther
Pays: England
ID NLM: 8707234
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
04 2020
04 2020
Historique:
received:
21
12
2019
revised:
27
01
2020
accepted:
06
02
2020
pubmed:
7
3
2020
medline:
15
9
2020
entrez:
6
3
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) account for an increasing proportion of liver disease in the Asia-Pacific region. Many areas in the region are experiencing epidemics of metabolic syndrome among rapidly ageing populations. To estimate using modelling the growth in NAFLD populations, including cases with significant fibrosis that are most likely to experience advanced liver disease and related mortality. A disease progression model was used to summarise and project fibrosis progression among the NAFLD populations of Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan. For each area, changes in the adult prevalence of obesity was used to extrapolate long-term trends in NAFLD incidence. In the areas studied, prevalent NAFLD cases were projected to increase 6%-20% during 2019-2030, while prevalent NASH cases increase 20%-35%. Incident cases of hepatocellular carcinoma are projected to increase by 65%-85%, while incident decompensated cirrhosis cases increase 65%-100% by 2030. Likewise, NAFLD-related mortality is projected to increase between 65% and 100% from 2019 to 2030. NAFLD disease burden is expected to increase alongside rising trends in metabolic syndrome and obesity among populations in the region. This leads to more cases of advanced liver disease and associated mortality. Preventing the growth of diabetic and obese populations will be a key factor in reducing ongoing increases in NAFLD-related disease burden in the Asia-Pacific region.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) account for an increasing proportion of liver disease in the Asia-Pacific region. Many areas in the region are experiencing epidemics of metabolic syndrome among rapidly ageing populations.
AIMS
To estimate using modelling the growth in NAFLD populations, including cases with significant fibrosis that are most likely to experience advanced liver disease and related mortality.
METHODS
A disease progression model was used to summarise and project fibrosis progression among the NAFLD populations of Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan. For each area, changes in the adult prevalence of obesity was used to extrapolate long-term trends in NAFLD incidence.
RESULTS
In the areas studied, prevalent NAFLD cases were projected to increase 6%-20% during 2019-2030, while prevalent NASH cases increase 20%-35%. Incident cases of hepatocellular carcinoma are projected to increase by 65%-85%, while incident decompensated cirrhosis cases increase 65%-100% by 2030. Likewise, NAFLD-related mortality is projected to increase between 65% and 100% from 2019 to 2030. NAFLD disease burden is expected to increase alongside rising trends in metabolic syndrome and obesity among populations in the region. This leads to more cases of advanced liver disease and associated mortality.
CONCLUSIONS
Preventing the growth of diabetic and obese populations will be a key factor in reducing ongoing increases in NAFLD-related disease burden in the Asia-Pacific region.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32133676
doi: 10.1111/apt.15673
pmc: PMC7154715
doi:
Types de publication
Historical Article
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
801-811Commentaires et corrections
Type : CommentIn
Type : CommentIn
Type : CommentIn
Informations de copyright
© 2020 The Authors. Alimentary Pharmacology & Therapeutics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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