Development and validation of a multivariable prediction model of spontaneous preterm delivery and microbial invasion of the amniotic cavity in women with preterm labor.
amniocentesis
cervical length
interleukin-6
intraamniotic infection
intraamniotic inflammation
microbial invasion of the amniotic cavity
multivariable prediction models
preterm birth
preterm labor
spontaneous preterm delivery
Journal
American journal of obstetrics and gynecology
ISSN: 1097-6868
Titre abrégé: Am J Obstet Gynecol
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 0370476
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
09 2020
09 2020
Historique:
received:
17
12
2019
revised:
29
01
2020
accepted:
27
02
2020
pubmed:
10
3
2020
medline:
18
11
2020
entrez:
10
3
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Early spontaneous preterm delivery is often associated with microbial invasion of the amniotic cavity and/or intraamniotic inflammation. The objective of the study was to develop and validate clinically feasible multivariable prediction models of spontaneous delivery within 7 days and microbial invasion of the amniotic cavity in women admitted with diagnose of preterm labor and intact membranes below 34 weeks. We used data from a cohort of women admitted from 2012 to 2018 with diagnosis of preterm labor below 34 weeks who had undergone amniocentesis to rule out microbial invasion of the amniotic cavity. The main outcome was spontaneous delivery within 7 days from admission. The secondary outcome was microbial invasion of the amniotic cavity, defined by a positive culture and/or 16S ribosomal RNA gene in the amniotic fluid. The sample (n = 358) was divided into derivation (2012-2016) and validation cohorts (2017-2018). Logistic regression models using a stepwise selection of variables were developed for the outcomes evaluated. We explored as predictive variables ultrasound cervical length measurement at admission, maternal C-reactive protein, gestational age, amniotic fluid glucose, and interleukin-6 (expressed as log units). Models were developed in the derivation cohort and applied to the validation cohort and diagnostic performance was calculated. The derivation cohort included 263 women and the validation cohort 95 women. One hundred five of the women (39%, 105 of 268) spontaneously delivered in the following 7 days and 68 (19%, 68 of 358) had microbial invasion of the amniotic cavity. For spontaneous delivery within 7 days after admission, 4 predictors were identified: cervical length at admission, gestational age, amniotic fluid glucose, and interleukin-6. The diagnostic performance of the model was assessed in the validation cohort using the receiver operating characteristic curve and showed an area under curve of 0.86 (95% confidence interval, 0.77-0.95) with a detection rate of spontaneous delivery within 7 days of 87%, a false-positive rate of 33%, a negative predictive value of 80%, and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.1908. For microbial invasion of the amniotic cavity, 2 independent predictors of the amniotic cavity were identified: amniotic fluid glucose and maternal C-reactive protein. The receiver operating characteristic curve and an area under curve in the validation cohort was 0.83 (95% confidence interval, 0.70-0.96) with a detection rate of 76%, a false-positive rate of 8%, a negative predictive value of 93%, and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.2591. In women with preterm labor, we propose 2 clinically feasible prediction models to classify as low vs high risk of spontaneous delivery within 7 days and of microbial invasion of the amniotic cavity. The models showed a high diagnostic performance and could be of value to optimize clinical management.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
Early spontaneous preterm delivery is often associated with microbial invasion of the amniotic cavity and/or intraamniotic inflammation.
OBJECTIVE
The objective of the study was to develop and validate clinically feasible multivariable prediction models of spontaneous delivery within 7 days and microbial invasion of the amniotic cavity in women admitted with diagnose of preterm labor and intact membranes below 34 weeks.
STUDY DESIGN
We used data from a cohort of women admitted from 2012 to 2018 with diagnosis of preterm labor below 34 weeks who had undergone amniocentesis to rule out microbial invasion of the amniotic cavity. The main outcome was spontaneous delivery within 7 days from admission. The secondary outcome was microbial invasion of the amniotic cavity, defined by a positive culture and/or 16S ribosomal RNA gene in the amniotic fluid. The sample (n = 358) was divided into derivation (2012-2016) and validation cohorts (2017-2018). Logistic regression models using a stepwise selection of variables were developed for the outcomes evaluated. We explored as predictive variables ultrasound cervical length measurement at admission, maternal C-reactive protein, gestational age, amniotic fluid glucose, and interleukin-6 (expressed as log units). Models were developed in the derivation cohort and applied to the validation cohort and diagnostic performance was calculated.
RESULTS
The derivation cohort included 263 women and the validation cohort 95 women. One hundred five of the women (39%, 105 of 268) spontaneously delivered in the following 7 days and 68 (19%, 68 of 358) had microbial invasion of the amniotic cavity. For spontaneous delivery within 7 days after admission, 4 predictors were identified: cervical length at admission, gestational age, amniotic fluid glucose, and interleukin-6. The diagnostic performance of the model was assessed in the validation cohort using the receiver operating characteristic curve and showed an area under curve of 0.86 (95% confidence interval, 0.77-0.95) with a detection rate of spontaneous delivery within 7 days of 87%, a false-positive rate of 33%, a negative predictive value of 80%, and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.1908. For microbial invasion of the amniotic cavity, 2 independent predictors of the amniotic cavity were identified: amniotic fluid glucose and maternal C-reactive protein. The receiver operating characteristic curve and an area under curve in the validation cohort was 0.83 (95% confidence interval, 0.70-0.96) with a detection rate of 76%, a false-positive rate of 8%, a negative predictive value of 93%, and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.2591.
CONCLUSION
In women with preterm labor, we propose 2 clinically feasible prediction models to classify as low vs high risk of spontaneous delivery within 7 days and of microbial invasion of the amniotic cavity. The models showed a high diagnostic performance and could be of value to optimize clinical management.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32147290
pii: S0002-9378(20)30241-6
doi: 10.1016/j.ajog.2020.02.049
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Observational Study
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Validation Study
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
421.e1-421.e14Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.