End-user involvement to improve predictions and management of populations with complex dynamics and multiple drivers.
climate change
decision-making
food web
harvesting
near-term forecasting
population cycles
stakeholders
strategic foresight
Journal
Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America
ISSN: 1051-0761
Titre abrégé: Ecol Appl
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 9889808
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
09 2020
09 2020
Historique:
received:
02
10
2019
revised:
21
12
2019
accepted:
10
02
2020
pubmed:
12
3
2020
medline:
7
1
2021
entrez:
12
3
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Sustainable management of wildlife populations can be aided by building models that both identify current drivers of natural dynamics and provide near-term predictions of future states. We employed a Strategic Foresight Protocol (SFP) involving stakeholders to decide the purpose and structure of a dynamic state-space model for the population dynamics of the Willow Ptarmigan, a popular game species in Norway. Based on local knowledge of stakeholders, it was decided that the model should include food web interactions and climatic drivers to provide explanatory predictions. Modeling confirmed observations from stakeholders that climate change impacts Ptarmigan populations negatively through intensified outbreaks of insect defoliators and later onset of winter. Stakeholders also decided that the model should provide anticipatory predictions. The ability to forecast population density ahead of the harvest season was valued by the stakeholders as it provides the management extra time to consider appropriate harvest regulations and communicate with hunters prior to the hunting season. Overall, exploring potential drivers and predicting short-term future states, facilitate collaborative learning and refined data collection, monitoring designs, and management priorities. Our experience from adapting a SFP to a management target with inherently complex dynamics and drivers of environmental change, is that an open, flexible, and iterative process, rather than a rigid step-wise protocol, facilitates rapid learning, trust, and legitimacy.
Banques de données
Dryad
['10.5061/dryad.hqbzkh1cb']
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
e02120Subventions
Organisme : Norges Forskningsråd
Pays : International
Organisme : Finnmark Estate (FeFo)
Pays : International
Informations de copyright
© 2020 The Authors. Ecological Applications published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Ecological Society of America.
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