A population model for the 2017/18 listeriosis outbreak in South Africa.
Aged
Computer Simulation
Disease Eradication
Disease Outbreaks
/ prevention & control
Female
Forecasting
/ methods
Humans
Life Expectancy
/ trends
Listeriosis
/ epidemiology
Male
Middle Aged
Models, Statistical
Mortality
/ trends
Population Dynamics
/ statistics & numerical data
South Africa
/ epidemiology
Journal
PloS one
ISSN: 1932-6203
Titre abrégé: PLoS One
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101285081
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
2020
2020
Historique:
received:
08
05
2019
accepted:
18
02
2020
entrez:
13
3
2020
pubmed:
13
3
2020
medline:
18
6
2020
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
We introduce a compartmental model of ordinary differential equations for the population dynamics of listeriosis, and we derive a model for analysing a listeriosis outbreak. The model explicitly accommodates neonatal infections. Similarly as is common in cholera modeling, we include a compartment to represent the reservoir of bacteria. We also include a compartment to represent the incubation phase. For the 2017/18 listeriosis outbreak that happened in South Africa, we calculate the time pattern and intensity of the force of infection, and we determine numerical values for some of the parameters in the model. The model is calibrated using South African data, together with existing data in the open literature not necessarily from South Africa. We make projections on the future outlook of the epidemiology of the disease and the possibility of eradication.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32163438
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0229901
pii: PONE-D-19-13008
pmc: PMC7067559
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
e0229901Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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