Etiology and mortality in severe acute pancreatitis: A multicenter study in Japan.
Decision-tree model
Epidemiology
Pancreas inflammation
Pancreatic infection
Prognosis
Journal
Pancreatology : official journal of the International Association of Pancreatology (IAP) ... [et al.]
ISSN: 1424-3911
Titre abrégé: Pancreatology
Pays: Switzerland
ID NLM: 100966936
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Apr 2020
Apr 2020
Historique:
received:
19
11
2019
revised:
20
02
2020
accepted:
04
03
2020
pubmed:
22
3
2020
medline:
27
2
2021
entrez:
22
3
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) has a high mortality rate despite ongoing attempts to improve prognosis through a various therapeutic modalities. This study aimed to delineate etiology-based routes that may guide clinical decisions for the treatment of SAP. Using data from a recent retrospective multicenter study in Japan, we analyzed the association between clinical outcomes, mainly in-hospital mortality and pancreatic infection, and various etiologies while considering confounding factors. We performed additional multivariate analyses and built decision tree models. The 1097 participating patients were classified into the following groups by etiology: alcohol (n = 436, 39.7%); cholelithiasis (n = 230, 21.0%); idiopathic (n = 227, 20.7%); and others (n = 204, 18.6%). Mortality at hospital discharge was 8.4%, 12.2%, 16.7%, and 16.2% in the alcohol, cholelithiasis, idiopathic, and others groups, respectively. According to multivariable analysis, early enteral nutrition (EN) was significantly associated with reduced in-hospital mortality only in the cholelithiasis group. However, there was a consistent association between age and the need for mechanical ventilation and increased mortality, regardless of etiology. Our decision tree models presented different contributing factors depending on the etiology and patient background. Interaction analysis showed that EN and the use of prophylactic antibiotics may influence these results differently according to etiology. No study has yet used comprehensive models to investigate etiology-related prognostic factors for SAP; our results can, therefore, be used as a reference for improving clinical decisions.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES
OBJECTIVE
Severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) has a high mortality rate despite ongoing attempts to improve prognosis through a various therapeutic modalities. This study aimed to delineate etiology-based routes that may guide clinical decisions for the treatment of SAP.
METHODS
METHODS
Using data from a recent retrospective multicenter study in Japan, we analyzed the association between clinical outcomes, mainly in-hospital mortality and pancreatic infection, and various etiologies while considering confounding factors. We performed additional multivariate analyses and built decision tree models.
RESULTS
RESULTS
The 1097 participating patients were classified into the following groups by etiology: alcohol (n = 436, 39.7%); cholelithiasis (n = 230, 21.0%); idiopathic (n = 227, 20.7%); and others (n = 204, 18.6%). Mortality at hospital discharge was 8.4%, 12.2%, 16.7%, and 16.2% in the alcohol, cholelithiasis, idiopathic, and others groups, respectively. According to multivariable analysis, early enteral nutrition (EN) was significantly associated with reduced in-hospital mortality only in the cholelithiasis group. However, there was a consistent association between age and the need for mechanical ventilation and increased mortality, regardless of etiology. Our decision tree models presented different contributing factors depending on the etiology and patient background. Interaction analysis showed that EN and the use of prophylactic antibiotics may influence these results differently according to etiology.
CONCLUSIONS
CONCLUSIONS
No study has yet used comprehensive models to investigate etiology-related prognostic factors for SAP; our results can, therefore, be used as a reference for improving clinical decisions.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32198057
pii: S1424-3903(20)30092-2
doi: 10.1016/j.pan.2020.03.001
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Multicenter Study
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
307-317Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2020 IAP and EPC. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
Declaration of competing interest The authors declare no conflict of interest.