Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using age-adjusted data from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, February 2020.


Journal

Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin
ISSN: 1560-7917
Titre abrégé: Euro Surveill
Pays: Sweden
ID NLM: 100887452

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
03 2020
Historique:
entrez: 3 4 2020
pubmed: 3 4 2020
medline: 11 4 2020
Statut: ppublish

Résumé

Adjusting for delay from confirmation to death, we estimated case and infection fatality ratios (CFR, IFR) for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on the Diamond Princess ship as 2.6% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.89-6.7) and 1.3% (95% CI: 0.38-3.6), respectively. Comparing deaths on board with expected deaths based on naive CFR estimates from China, we estimated CFR and IFR in China to be 1.2% (95% CI: 0.3-2.7) and 0.6% (95% CI: 0.2-1.3), respectively.

Identifiants

pubmed: 32234121
doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000256
pmc: PMC7118348
doi:

Types de publication

Journal Article

Langues

eng

Sous-ensembles de citation

IM

Références

PLoS One. 2009 Aug 31;4(8):e6852
pubmed: 19718434
J Clin Med. 2020 Feb 17;9(2):
pubmed: 32079150
Lancet. 2014 Oct 4;384(9950):1260
pubmed: 25260235
Euro Surveill. 2009 Jul 02;14(26):
pubmed: 19573509
JAMA. 2020 Feb 24;:
pubmed: 32091533

Auteurs

Timothy W Russell (TW)

Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.

Joel Hellewell (J)

Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
These authors contributed equally to this work.

Christopher I Jarvis (CI)

Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
These authors contributed equally to this work.

Kevin van Zandvoort (K)

Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
These authors contributed equally to this work.

Sam Abbott (S)

Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.

Ruwan Ratnayake (R)

Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
The members of the Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases (CMMID) COVID-19 working group are listed at the end of the article.

Stefan Flasche (S)

Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.

Rosalind M Eggo (RM)

Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.

W John Edmunds (WJ)

Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.

Adam J Kucharski (AJ)

Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.

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Classifications MeSH