Estimating clinical severity of COVID-19 from the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China.
Adolescent
Adult
Age Factors
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Asymptomatic Diseases
Betacoronavirus
COVID-19
COVID-19 Testing
Child
Child, Preschool
China
/ epidemiology
Clinical Laboratory Techniques
Coronavirus Infections
/ complications
Female
Humans
Infant
Male
Middle Aged
Models, Statistical
Mortality
Pandemics
Pneumonia, Viral
/ complications
Prognosis
Real-Time Polymerase Chain Reaction
Risk Factors
SARS-CoV-2
Severity of Illness Index
Journal
Nature medicine
ISSN: 1546-170X
Titre abrégé: Nat Med
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 9502015
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
04 2020
04 2020
Historique:
received:
13
02
2020
accepted:
09
03
2020
entrez:
15
4
2020
pubmed:
15
4
2020
medline:
17
4
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
As of 29 February 2020 there were 79,394 confirmed cases and 2,838 deaths from COVID-19 in mainland China. Of these, 48,557 cases and 2,169 deaths occurred in the epicenter, Wuhan. A key public health priority during the emergence of a novel pathogen is estimating clinical severity, which requires properly adjusting for the case ascertainment rate and the delay between symptoms onset and death. Using public and published information, we estimate that the overall symptomatic case fatality risk (the probability of dying after developing symptoms) of COVID-19 in Wuhan was 1.4% (0.9-2.1%), which is substantially lower than both the corresponding crude or naïve confirmed case fatality risk (2,169/48,557 = 4.5%) and the approximator
Identifiants
pubmed: 32284616
doi: 10.1038/s41591-020-0822-7
pii: 10.1038/s41591-020-0822-7
pmc: PMC7094929
doi:
Types de publication
Letter
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
506-510Subventions
Organisme : NIAID NIH HHS
ID : R01 AI128344
Pays : United States
Organisme : NIGMS NIH HHS
ID : U54 GM088558
Pays : United States
Organisme : U.S. Department of Health & Human Services | NIH | National Institute of General Medical Sciences (NIGMS)
ID : U54GM088558
Pays : International
Commentaires et corrections
Type : ErratumIn
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