Validation of shock index for predicting mortality in older patients with dengue fever.
Dengue fever
Mortality
Older adult
Shock index
Journal
Aging clinical and experimental research
ISSN: 1720-8319
Titre abrégé: Aging Clin Exp Res
Pays: Germany
ID NLM: 101132995
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Mar 2021
Mar 2021
Historique:
received:
20
02
2020
accepted:
11
04
2020
pubmed:
14
5
2020
medline:
12
3
2021
entrez:
14
5
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Older adults have a higher mortality for dengue fever (DF). However, the best method for predicting mortality is still unclear. We conducted this study to evaluate the shock index (SI) for this issue. A retrospective case-control study was conducted by recruiting older patients (≥ 65 years old) with DF who visited the study hospital in southern Taiwan during the 2015 DF outbreak. Demographic data, vital signs, past histories, decision groups, complications, and mortality were included in the analyses. We evaluated the accuracy of SI ≥ 1 for predicting 30-day mortality in this population. A total of 626 patients with a mean age of 74.1 years and nearly equal sex distribution were recruited. The mean of SI (± standard deviation [SD]) was 0.6 (± 0.2) and patients with a SI ≥ 1 accounted for 3.5% of the total patients. Logistic regression showed that patients with SI ≥ 1 had a higher mortality than those with SI < 1 (odds ratio: 8.49; 95% confidence interval: 1.76-17.92). The area under the receiver-operating characteristic was 0.76, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test was 0.48. The SI ≥ 1 had a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of 14.8%, 97.0%, 18.2%, and 96.2% for predicting mortality. The SI ≥ 1 is an easy tool that can be potentially used to predict 30-day mortality in older DF patients, especially in DF outbreak. It has a high specificity and negative predictive value for excluding patients with high-risk mortality.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
Older adults have a higher mortality for dengue fever (DF). However, the best method for predicting mortality is still unclear.
AIMS
OBJECTIVE
We conducted this study to evaluate the shock index (SI) for this issue.
METHODS
METHODS
A retrospective case-control study was conducted by recruiting older patients (≥ 65 years old) with DF who visited the study hospital in southern Taiwan during the 2015 DF outbreak. Demographic data, vital signs, past histories, decision groups, complications, and mortality were included in the analyses. We evaluated the accuracy of SI ≥ 1 for predicting 30-day mortality in this population.
RESULTS
RESULTS
A total of 626 patients with a mean age of 74.1 years and nearly equal sex distribution were recruited. The mean of SI (± standard deviation [SD]) was 0.6 (± 0.2) and patients with a SI ≥ 1 accounted for 3.5% of the total patients. Logistic regression showed that patients with SI ≥ 1 had a higher mortality than those with SI < 1 (odds ratio: 8.49; 95% confidence interval: 1.76-17.92). The area under the receiver-operating characteristic was 0.76, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test was 0.48. The SI ≥ 1 had a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of 14.8%, 97.0%, 18.2%, and 96.2% for predicting mortality.
CONCLUSIONS
CONCLUSIONS
The SI ≥ 1 is an easy tool that can be potentially used to predict 30-day mortality in older DF patients, especially in DF outbreak. It has a high specificity and negative predictive value for excluding patients with high-risk mortality.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32399869
doi: 10.1007/s40520-020-01563-7
pii: 10.1007/s40520-020-01563-7
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
635-640Références
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