Reversal of the seasonality of temperature-attributable mortality from respiratory diseases in Spain.
Journal
Nature communications
ISSN: 2041-1723
Titre abrégé: Nat Commun
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101528555
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
20 05 2020
20 05 2020
Historique:
received:
16
10
2019
accepted:
23
04
2020
entrez:
21
5
2020
pubmed:
21
5
2020
medline:
11
8
2020
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
A growing number of epidemiological studies have recently assessed temporal variations in vulnerability and/or mortality attributable to hot and cold temperatures. However, the eventual changes in the seasonal distribution of temperature-attributable mortality remain unexplored. Here, we analyse countrywide daily time-series of temperature and mortality counts from respiratory diseases by sex, age group and province of residence during the period 1980-2016 in Spain. We show the complete reversal of the seasonality of temperature-attributable mortality, with a significant shift of the maximum monthly incidence from winter to summer, and the minimum monthly incidence from early and late summer to winter. The reversal in the seasonal distribution of the attributable deaths is not driven by the observed warming in both winter and summer temperatures, but rather by the very large decrease in the risk of death due to cold temperatures and the relatively much smaller reduction due to hot temperatures. We conclude that the projected decrease in the number of moderate and extreme cold days due to climate warming will not contribute to a further reduction of cold-attributable respiratory deaths.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32433517
doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-16273-x
pii: 10.1038/s41467-020-16273-x
pmc: PMC7239891
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
2457Références
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