Hepatocellular Carcinoma Multidisciplinary Clinic-Cairo University (HMC-CU) score: A new simple score for diagnosis of HCC.
Age Factors
Biomarkers
/ blood
Carcinoma, Hepatocellular
/ blood
Early Detection of Cancer
/ methods
Female
Hemoglobins
/ analysis
Hepatitis C
/ complications
Humans
International Normalized Ratio
Liver Cirrhosis
/ diagnostic imaging
Liver Neoplasms
/ blood
Male
Middle Aged
Predictive Value of Tests
Research Design
Serum Albumin
/ analysis
Sex Factors
alpha-Fetoproteins
/ analysis
Diagnosis
Hepatocellular Carcinoma Multidisciplinary Clinic-Cairo University (HMC-CU) score
Hepatocellular carcinoma
Prediction
Journal
Arab journal of gastroenterology : the official publication of the Pan-Arab Association of Gastroenterology
ISSN: 2090-2387
Titre abrégé: Arab J Gastroenterol
Pays: Egypt
ID NLM: 101298363
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Jun 2020
Jun 2020
Historique:
received:
17
05
2018
revised:
31
07
2019
accepted:
05
04
2020
pubmed:
23
5
2020
medline:
30
3
2021
entrez:
23
5
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
The risk of hepatocarcinogenesis depends on background liver factors, of which fibrosis is a major determinant. Serum markers and scores are of increasing importance in non-invasive diagnosis of hepatic fibrosis. Our aim was to predict the occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) using a non-invasive fibrosis score calculated using routine patient data. Our retrospective study included 1,291 hepatitis C related-HCC Egyptian patients (Group 1) recruited from the multidisciplinary HCC clinic, Faculty of Medicine, Cairo University in the period between February 2009 and June 2016 and 1072 chronic hepatitis C-naïve patients (Group 2) with advanced fibrosis (≥F3) and cirrhosis (F4). King score, Fibro Q score, Aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), AST to ALT ratio (AAR), LOK score, Göteborg University Cirrhosis Index (GUCI), Fibro-α and Biotechnology Research Center (BRC) scores were calculated for all patients. Regression analysis and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) were used to calculate the sensitivity, specificity and predictive values for significant scores with the best cut-off for predicting HCC. A regression equation was used to calculate predicted probabilities of HCC using the following variables; age, gender, haemoglobin, international normalised ratio (INR), albumin and alpha fetoprotein. The appropriate score cut-off points yielding optimal sensitivity and specificity were determined by ROC curve analysis. There was a highly significant difference between the two groups for all calculated scores (P = 0.0001). Our new score, the Hepatocellular Carcinoma Multidisciplinary Clinic-Cairo University (HMC-CU) score (Logit probability of HCC = - 2.524 + 0.152*age - 0.121*Hb - 0.696*INR - 1.059*Alb + 0.022*AFP + 0.976*Sex. Male = 1, Female = 0), with a cut-off of 0.559 was superior to other scores for predicting HCC, having a sensitivity of 90% and specificity of 80.6%. The HMC-CU score is a promising, easily calculated, accurate, cost-effective score for HCC prediction in chronic HCV patients with advanced liver fibrosis.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS
OBJECTIVE
The risk of hepatocarcinogenesis depends on background liver factors, of which fibrosis is a major determinant. Serum markers and scores are of increasing importance in non-invasive diagnosis of hepatic fibrosis. Our aim was to predict the occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) using a non-invasive fibrosis score calculated using routine patient data.
PATIENTS AND MTHODS
UNASSIGNED
Our retrospective study included 1,291 hepatitis C related-HCC Egyptian patients (Group 1) recruited from the multidisciplinary HCC clinic, Faculty of Medicine, Cairo University in the period between February 2009 and June 2016 and 1072 chronic hepatitis C-naïve patients (Group 2) with advanced fibrosis (≥F3) and cirrhosis (F4). King score, Fibro Q score, Aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), AST to ALT ratio (AAR), LOK score, Göteborg University Cirrhosis Index (GUCI), Fibro-α and Biotechnology Research Center (BRC) scores were calculated for all patients. Regression analysis and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) were used to calculate the sensitivity, specificity and predictive values for significant scores with the best cut-off for predicting HCC. A regression equation was used to calculate predicted probabilities of HCC using the following variables; age, gender, haemoglobin, international normalised ratio (INR), albumin and alpha fetoprotein. The appropriate score cut-off points yielding optimal sensitivity and specificity were determined by ROC curve analysis.
RESULTS
RESULTS
There was a highly significant difference between the two groups for all calculated scores (P = 0.0001). Our new score, the Hepatocellular Carcinoma Multidisciplinary Clinic-Cairo University (HMC-CU) score (Logit probability of HCC = - 2.524 + 0.152*age - 0.121*Hb - 0.696*INR - 1.059*Alb + 0.022*AFP + 0.976*Sex. Male = 1, Female = 0), with a cut-off of 0.559 was superior to other scores for predicting HCC, having a sensitivity of 90% and specificity of 80.6%.
CONCLUSION
CONCLUSIONS
The HMC-CU score is a promising, easily calculated, accurate, cost-effective score for HCC prediction in chronic HCV patients with advanced liver fibrosis.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32439235
pii: S1687-1979(20)30012-5
doi: 10.1016/j.ajg.2020.04.001
pii:
doi:
Substances chimiques
Biomarkers
0
Hemoglobins
0
Serum Albumin
0
alpha-Fetoproteins
0
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
102-105Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2020 Pan-Arab Association of Gastroenterology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
Conflicts of interests None declared.