The changing demography of the cystic fibrosis population: forecasting future numbers of adults in the UK.
Journal
Scientific reports
ISSN: 2045-2322
Titre abrégé: Sci Rep
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101563288
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
30 06 2020
30 06 2020
Historique:
received:
29
02
2020
accepted:
01
06
2020
entrez:
2
7
2020
pubmed:
2
7
2020
medline:
15
12
2020
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Improvements in management of cystic fibrosis (CF) through specialist centres in the UK have been associated with a step-change in life expectancy. With increasing numbers of adult patients there is a need to review health care provision to ensure it is sufficient to meet future needs. We used UK CF Registry data to project the number of patients aged 16-17 and 18 and older up to 2030, and numbers therefore requiring specialist adult CF care. Survival modelling was used to estimate age-specific mortality rates. New-diagnosis rates were estimated using diagnoses observed in the Registry and national population figures. Uncertainty in projections was captured through 95% prediction intervals (PI). The number of adults (aged 18 and older) is expected to increase by 28% from 6,225 in 2017 to 7,988 in 2030 (95% PI 7,803-8,169), assuming current mortality rates. If mortality rates improve at the rate seen over recent years, the projected number increases to 8,579 (95% PI 8,386-8,764). The age distribution is also expected to change, with 36% of CF adults being over 40 in 2030, versus 21% in 2017. There is an urgent requirement to review adult CF health care provision, due to both increasing numbers and the changing care needs of an older population.
Identifiants
pubmed: 32606329
doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-67353-3
pii: 10.1038/s41598-020-67353-3
pmc: PMC7327064
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
10660Subventions
Organisme : Medical Research Council
ID : MR/M014827/1
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : Medical Research Council
ID : MR/S017968/1
Pays : United Kingdom
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