Sink or Swim? A survival analysis of sport dropout in Australian youth swimmers.
sport cessation
sport participation
swimming
time to event
youth competition
Journal
Scandinavian journal of medicine & science in sports
ISSN: 1600-0838
Titre abrégé: Scand J Med Sci Sports
Pays: Denmark
ID NLM: 9111504
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Nov 2020
Nov 2020
Historique:
received:
26
02
2020
revised:
06
07
2020
accepted:
09
07
2020
pubmed:
16
7
2020
medline:
14
4
2021
entrez:
16
7
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
To examine long-term participation and dropout rates in Australian youth swimming using survival analyses and to determine whether multiple individual, socio-demographic, and competition-related factors influenced dropout. Retrospective cohort study of registration and competitive performance data. Part 1-Registration data from N = 17 161 female (n = 9400) and male (n = 7761) New South Wales (NSW) swimmers aged 10-15 years (inclusive). Part 2-Competition level involvement in a subsample of female (n = 1011) and male (n = 811) swimmers, aged 12-15 years, was also examined. To determine dropout rates and influential factors, Kaplan-Meier survival analyses supplemented by Cox regression were used. (1) Kaplan-Meier analyses identified median sustained participation rates of four years (95% CI = 3.93-4.06), with 15.9% maintaining participation over 10 years. Cox regressions identified age-group was associated with dropout (P < .001), with a 184.9% higher Hazard Rate (HR) for 10- vs 15-year-olds. Residential proximity to major cities was associated with dropout (P < .001), with urban swimmers reporting a 24.8% higher HR rate than rural swimmers. Sex and relative age were not associated with dropout. (2) The subsample median sustained participation was five years (95% CI = 4.79-5.20), with 25.3% maintaining participation for ten years. Level of competition was associated (P < .001), with an 86% higher HR when considering lower competition levels (ie, club/district v national). In a large representative sample of swimmers, survival analyses identified age-group, competition level, and city proximity were associated with increased swimming dropout rates.
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
2222-2233Informations de copyright
© 2020 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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