Comparison of conventional scoring systems versus MAGIC score to predict short-term mortality in patients hospitalized for alcoholic hepatitis.
Alcoholic hepatitis
discriminant function
mortality
outcomes
scoring system
Journal
Scandinavian journal of gastroenterology
ISSN: 1502-7708
Titre abrégé: Scand J Gastroenterol
Pays: England
ID NLM: 0060105
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Nov 2020
Nov 2020
Historique:
pubmed:
2
10
2020
medline:
19
8
2021
entrez:
1
10
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Multiple prognostic models are available to predict mortality in alcoholic hepatitis (AH) which are of modest benefit, but the best model remains unexplored. This is a retrospective analysis (2012-2015) of AH patients. Conventional prognostic scoring systems viz. Maddrey's Discriminant Function (mDF), Age Bilirubin International Normalized Ratio and Creatinine (ABIC), Glasgow Alcoholic Hepatitis Score (GAHS), and the Model for End-stage Liver Disease score (MELD), were compared with Model for AH to Grade the Severity in an Asian patient cohort (MAGIC) score, using area under the ROC curves for ascertaining 30/90-day mortality. Eighty-eight patients (100% male); mean (SD) age of 45.6 (7.6) years with a follow-up of 80.7 (45.1) days were included. The 30 and 90-day mortality were 21 (23.9%) and 42 (47.7%), respectively; the commonest cause being sepsis in 22 (48.9%) patients. Survival probabilities for mDF < 32 and mDF > 32 were 100% and 42.25% ± 4.46%, respectively ( This study showed that mDF had a better predictive performance than other scoring systems in patients with AH.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
Multiple prognostic models are available to predict mortality in alcoholic hepatitis (AH) which are of modest benefit, but the best model remains unexplored.
METHODS
METHODS
This is a retrospective analysis (2012-2015) of AH patients. Conventional prognostic scoring systems viz. Maddrey's Discriminant Function (mDF), Age Bilirubin International Normalized Ratio and Creatinine (ABIC), Glasgow Alcoholic Hepatitis Score (GAHS), and the Model for End-stage Liver Disease score (MELD), were compared with Model for AH to Grade the Severity in an Asian patient cohort (MAGIC) score, using area under the ROC curves for ascertaining 30/90-day mortality.
RESULTS
RESULTS
Eighty-eight patients (100% male); mean (SD) age of 45.6 (7.6) years with a follow-up of 80.7 (45.1) days were included. The 30 and 90-day mortality were 21 (23.9%) and 42 (47.7%), respectively; the commonest cause being sepsis in 22 (48.9%) patients. Survival probabilities for mDF < 32 and mDF > 32 were 100% and 42.25% ± 4.46%, respectively (
CONCLUSION
CONCLUSIONS
This study showed that mDF had a better predictive performance than other scoring systems in patients with AH.
Identifiants
pubmed: 33001708
doi: 10.1080/00365521.2020.1822909
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM