Inference of person-to-person transmission of COVID-19 reveals hidden super-spreading events during the early outbreak phase.
Journal
Nature communications
ISSN: 2041-1723
Titre abrégé: Nat Commun
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101528555
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
06 10 2020
06 10 2020
Historique:
received:
11
07
2020
accepted:
10
09
2020
entrez:
7
10
2020
pubmed:
8
10
2020
medline:
21
10
2020
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first identified in late 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China and spread globally in months, sparking worldwide concern. However, it is unclear whether super-spreading events occurred during the early outbreak phase, as has been observed for other emerging viruses. Here, we analyse 208 publicly available SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences collected during the early outbreak phase. We combine phylogenetic analysis with Bayesian inference under an epidemiological model to trace person-to-person transmission. The dispersion parameter of the offspring distribution in the inferred transmission chain was estimated to be 0.23 (95% CI: 0.13-0.38), indicating there are individuals who directly infected a disproportionately large number of people. Our results showed that super-spreading events played an important role in the early stage of the COVID-19 outbreak.
Identifiants
pubmed: 33024095
doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-18836-4
pii: 10.1038/s41467-020-18836-4
pmc: PMC7538999
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
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