Acceleration of plague outbreaks in the second pandemic.
COVID-19
London
epidemic growth rate
plague
reproduction number
Journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
ISSN: 1091-6490
Titre abrégé: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 7505876
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
03 11 2020
03 11 2020
Historique:
pubmed:
21
10
2020
medline:
12
11
2020
entrez:
20
10
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Historical records reveal the temporal patterns of a sequence of plague epidemics in London, United Kingdom, from the 14th to 17th centuries. Analysis of these records shows that later epidemics spread significantly faster ("accelerated"). Between the Black Death of 1348 and the later epidemics that culminated with the Great Plague of 1665, we estimate that the epidemic growth rate increased fourfold. Currently available data do not provide enough information to infer the mode of plague transmission in any given epidemic; nevertheless, order-of-magnitude estimates of epidemic parameters suggest that the observed slow growth rates in the 14th century are inconsistent with direct (pneumonic) transmission. We discuss the potential roles of demographic and ecological factors, such as climate change or human or rat population density, in driving the observed acceleration.
Identifiants
pubmed: 33077604
pii: 2004904117
doi: 10.1073/pnas.2004904117
pmc: PMC7959508
doi:
Types de publication
Historical Article
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
27703-27711Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2020 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors declare no competing interest.
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