Dynamics and Dispersal of Local Human Immunodeficiency Virus Epidemics Within San Diego and Across the San Diego-Tijuana Border.
Bayesian discrete phylogeography
HIV
generalized linear model
phylogeography
Journal
Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America
ISSN: 1537-6591
Titre abrégé: Clin Infect Dis
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 9203213
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
05 10 2021
05 10 2021
Historique:
received:
15
03
2020
pubmed:
21
10
2020
medline:
21
10
2021
entrez:
20
10
2020
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Evolutionary analyses of well-annotated human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) sequence data can provide insights into viral transmission patterns and associated factors. Here, we explored the transmission dynamics of the HIV-1 subtype B epidemic across the San Diego (US) and Tijuana (Mexico) border region to identify factors that could help guide public health policy. HIV pol sequences were collected from people with HIV in San Diego County and Tijuana between 1996-2018. A multistep phylogenetic approach was used to characterize the dynamics of spread. The contributions of geospatial factors and HIV risk group to the local dynamics were evaluated. Phylogeographic analyses of the 2034 sequences revealed an important contribution of local transmission in sustaining the epidemic, as well as a complex viral migration network across the region. Geospatial viral dispersal between San Diego communities occurred predominantly among men who have sex with men, with central San Diego being the main source (34.9%) and recipient (39.5%) of migration events. HIV migration was more frequent from San Diego county towards Tijuana than vice versa. Migrations were best explained by the driving time between locations. The US-Mexico border may not be a major barrier to the spread of HIV, which may stimulate coordinated transnational intervention approaches. Whereas a focus on central San Diego has the potential to avert most spread, the substantial viral migration independent of central San Diego shows that county-wide efforts will be more effective. Combined, this work shows that epidemiological information gleaned from pathogen genomes can uncover mechanisms that underlie sustained spread and, in turn, can be a building block of public health decision-making.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
Evolutionary analyses of well-annotated human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) sequence data can provide insights into viral transmission patterns and associated factors. Here, we explored the transmission dynamics of the HIV-1 subtype B epidemic across the San Diego (US) and Tijuana (Mexico) border region to identify factors that could help guide public health policy.
METHODS
HIV pol sequences were collected from people with HIV in San Diego County and Tijuana between 1996-2018. A multistep phylogenetic approach was used to characterize the dynamics of spread. The contributions of geospatial factors and HIV risk group to the local dynamics were evaluated.
RESULTS
Phylogeographic analyses of the 2034 sequences revealed an important contribution of local transmission in sustaining the epidemic, as well as a complex viral migration network across the region. Geospatial viral dispersal between San Diego communities occurred predominantly among men who have sex with men, with central San Diego being the main source (34.9%) and recipient (39.5%) of migration events. HIV migration was more frequent from San Diego county towards Tijuana than vice versa. Migrations were best explained by the driving time between locations.
CONCLUSIONS
The US-Mexico border may not be a major barrier to the spread of HIV, which may stimulate coordinated transnational intervention approaches. Whereas a focus on central San Diego has the potential to avert most spread, the substantial viral migration independent of central San Diego shows that county-wide efforts will be more effective. Combined, this work shows that epidemiological information gleaned from pathogen genomes can uncover mechanisms that underlie sustained spread and, in turn, can be a building block of public health decision-making.
Identifiants
pubmed: 33079188
pii: 5932275
doi: 10.1093/cid/ciaa1588
pmc: PMC8492140
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
e2018-e2025Subventions
Organisme : NIDA NIH HHS
ID : K01 DA040543
Pays : United States
Organisme : Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología
ID : CONACyT SALUD-2017-01-289725
Organisme : NIDA NIH HHS
ID : R01 DA037811
Pays : United States
Organisme : NIAID NIH HHS
ID : R21 AI131971
Pays : United States
Organisme : Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek-Vlaanderen
ID : 12U7118N
Organisme : Mexican Government
Organisme : NIMH NIH HHS
ID : R01 MH100974
Pays : United States
Organisme : NIAID NIH HHS
ID : R24 AI106039
Pays : United States
Informations de copyright
© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
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