Inferring high-resolution human mixing patterns for disease modeling.
Journal
Nature communications
ISSN: 2041-1723
Titre abrégé: Nat Commun
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101528555
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
12 01 2021
12 01 2021
Historique:
received:
19
02
2020
accepted:
08
12
2020
entrez:
13
1
2021
pubmed:
14
1
2021
medline:
22
1
2021
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Mathematical and computational modeling approaches are increasingly used as quantitative tools in the analysis and forecasting of infectious disease epidemics. The growing need for realism in addressing complex public health questions is, however, calling for accurate models of the human contact patterns that govern the disease transmission processes. Here we present a data-driven approach to generate effective population-level contact matrices by using highly detailed macro (census) and micro (survey) data on key socio-demographic features. We produce age-stratified contact matrices for 35 countries, including 277 sub-national administratvie regions of 8 of those countries, covering approximately 3.5 billion people and reflecting the high degree of cultural and societal diversity of the focus countries. We use the derived contact matrices to model the spread of airborne infectious diseases and show that sub-national heterogeneities in human mixing patterns have a marked impact on epidemic indicators such as the reproduction number and overall attack rate of epidemics of the same etiology. The contact patterns derived here are made publicly available as a modeling tool to study the impact of socio-economic differences and demographic heterogeneities across populations on the epidemiology of infectious diseases.
Identifiants
pubmed: 33436609
doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-20544-y
pii: 10.1038/s41467-020-20544-y
pmc: PMC7803761
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
323Subventions
Organisme : NIGMS NIH HHS
ID : U54 GM111274
Pays : United States
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