Does death from Covid-19 arise from a multi-step process?
Covid-19
Epidemiology
Infectious diseases
Mortality
Journal
European journal of epidemiology
ISSN: 1573-7284
Titre abrégé: Eur J Epidemiol
Pays: Netherlands
ID NLM: 8508062
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Jan 2021
Jan 2021
Historique:
received:
27
07
2020
accepted:
15
12
2020
pubmed:
19
1
2021
medline:
5
2
2021
entrez:
18
1
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
The Covid-19 death rate increases exponentially with age, and the main risk factors are having underlying conditions such as hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, severe chronic respiratory disease and cancer. These characteristics are consistent with the multi-step model of disease. We applied this model to Covid-19 case fatality rates (CFRs) from China, South Korea, Italy, Spain and Japan. In all countries we found that a plot of log(CFR) against log(age) was approximately linear with a slope of about 5. We also conducted similar analyses for selected other respiratory diseases. SARS showed a similar log-log age-pattern to that of Covid-19, albeit with a lower slope, whereas seasonal and pandemic influenza showed quite different age-patterns. Thus, death from Covid-19 and SARS appears to follow a distinct age-pattern, consistent with a multi-step model of disease that in the case of Covid-19 is probably defined by comorbidities and age producing immune-related susceptibility.
Identifiants
pubmed: 33459897
doi: 10.1007/s10654-020-00711-7
pii: 10.1007/s10654-020-00711-7
pmc: PMC7812338
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
1-9Subventions
Organisme : Medical Research Council
ID : MC_UU_00011/6
Pays : United Kingdom
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