COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan demonstrates the limitations of publicly available case numbers for epidemiological modeling.
Compartment model
Model selection
Parameter estimation
SEIRD
Uncertainty analysis
Journal
Epidemics
ISSN: 1878-0067
Titre abrégé: Epidemics
Pays: Netherlands
ID NLM: 101484711
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
03 2021
03 2021
Historique:
received:
08
06
2020
revised:
19
01
2021
accepted:
21
01
2021
pubmed:
9
2
2021
medline:
17
3
2021
entrez:
8
2
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Epidemiological models are widely used to analyze the spread of diseases such as the global COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2. However, all models are based on simplifying assumptions and often on sparse data. This limits the reliability of parameter estimates and predictions. In this manuscript, we demonstrate the relevance of these limitations and the pitfalls associated with the use of overly simplistic models. We considered the data for the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China, as an example, and perform parameter estimation, uncertainty analysis and model selection for a range of established epidemiological models. Amongst others, we employ Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, parameter and prediction profile calculation algorithms. Our results show that parameter estimates and predictions obtained for several established models on the basis of reported case numbers can be subject to substantial uncertainty. More importantly, estimates were often unrealistic and the confidence/credibility intervals did not cover plausible values of critical parameters obtained using different approaches. These findings suggest, amongst others, that standard compartmental models can be overly simplistic and that the reported case numbers provide often insufficient information for obtaining reliable and realistic parameter values, and for forecasting the evolution of epidemics.
Identifiants
pubmed: 33556763
pii: S1755-4365(21)00003-7
doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100439
pmc: PMC7845523
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
100439Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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