A risk algorithm that predicts alcohol use disorders among college students.
Alcohol use disorder
Hazardous drinking
Incidence
Risk algorithm
University students
Journal
European child & adolescent psychiatry
ISSN: 1435-165X
Titre abrégé: Eur Child Adolesc Psychiatry
Pays: Germany
ID NLM: 9212296
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Jul 2022
Jul 2022
Historique:
received:
03
02
2020
accepted:
21
12
2020
pubmed:
17
3
2021
medline:
4
8
2022
entrez:
16
3
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
The first year of college may carry especially high risk for onset of alcohol use disorders. We assessed the one-year incidence of alcohol use disorders (AUD) among incoming first-year students, predictors of AUD-incidence, prediction accuracy and population impact. A prospective cohort study of first-year college students (baseline: N = 5843; response rate = 51.8%; 1-year follow-up: n = 1959; conditional response rate = 41.6%) at a large university in Belgium was conducted. AUD were evaluated with the AUDIT and baseline predictors with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview Screening Scales (CIDI-SC). The one-year incidence of AUD was 3.9% (SE = 0.4). The most important individual-level baseline predictors of AUD incidence were being male (OR = 1.53; 95% CI = 1.12-2.10), a break-up with a romantic partner (OR = 1.67; 95% CI = 1.08-2.59), hazardous drinking (OR = 3.36; 95% CI = 1.31-8.63), and alcohol use characteristics at baseline (ORs between 1.29 and 1.38). Multivariate cross-validated prediction (cross-validated AUC = 0.887) shows that 55.5% of incident AUD cases occurred among the 10% of students at highest predicted risk (20.1% predicted incidence in this highest-risk subgroup). Four out of five students with incident AUD would hypothetically be preventable if baseline hazardous drinking was to be eliminated along with a reduction of one standard deviation in alcohol use characteristics scores, and another 15.0% would potentially be preventable if all 12-month stressful events were eliminated. Screening at college entrance is a promising strategy to identify students at risk of transitioning to more problematic drinking and AUD, thus improving the development and deployment of targeted preventive interventions.
Identifiants
pubmed: 33723648
doi: 10.1007/s00787-020-01712-3
pii: 10.1007/s00787-020-01712-3
pmc: PMC9336831
mid: NIHMS1824117
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
1-11Subventions
Organisme : NIDA NIH HHS
ID : R01 DA016558
Pays : United States
Organisme : Fonds De La Recherche Scientifique - FNRS
ID : 1114717N/1114719N
Organisme : FIC NIH HHS
ID : R03 TW006481
Pays : United States
Organisme : Eli Lilly and Company
ID : IITH6UBXI002
Organisme : NIMH NIH HHS
ID : R01 MH069864
Pays : United States
Organisme : Koning Boudewijnstichting
ID : 2014J2140150102905
Organisme : NIMH NIH HHS
ID : R01 MH070884
Pays : United States
Organisme : NIMH NIH HHS
ID : R13 MH066849
Pays : United States
Organisme : Fonds GaVoorGeluk/ Diepensteyn Foundation
ID : 2018-LUF-0070
Organisme : Fonds De La Recherche Scientifique - FNRS
ID : 11N0514N/11N0516N
Informations de copyright
© 2021. Springer-Verlag GmbH, DE part of Springer Nature.
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