SARS-CoV-2 shifting transmission dynamics and hidden reservoirs potentially limit efficacy of public health interventions in Italy.
Journal
Communications biology
ISSN: 2399-3642
Titre abrégé: Commun Biol
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101719179
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
21 04 2021
21 04 2021
Historique:
received:
21
12
2020
accepted:
03
03
2021
entrez:
22
4
2021
pubmed:
23
4
2021
medline:
11
5
2021
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
We investigated SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in Italy, one of the countries hit hardest by the pandemic, using phylodynamic analysis of viral genetic and epidemiological data. We observed the co-circulation of multiple SARS-CoV-2 lineages over time, which were linked to multiple importations and characterized by large transmission clusters concomitant with a high number of infections. Subsequent implementation of a three-phase nationwide lockdown strategy greatly reduced infection numbers and hospitalizations. Yet we present evidence of sustained viral spread among sporadic clusters acting as "hidden reservoirs" during summer 2020. Mathematical modelling shows that increased mobility among residents eventually catalyzed the coalescence of such clusters, thus driving up the number of infections and initiating a new epidemic wave. Our results suggest that the efficacy of public health interventions is, ultimately, limited by the size and structure of epidemic reservoirs, which may warrant prioritization during vaccine deployment.
Identifiants
pubmed: 33883675
doi: 10.1038/s42003-021-02025-0
pii: 10.1038/s42003-021-02025-0
pmc: PMC8060392
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
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