Distinct interspecific and intraspecific vulnerability of coastal species to global change.
adaptive potential
climate change
ecological modelling
genomic offset
gradient forest
marine invertebrates
seascape genomics
species distribution models
Journal
Global change biology
ISSN: 1365-2486
Titre abrégé: Glob Chang Biol
Pays: England
ID NLM: 9888746
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
08 2021
08 2021
Historique:
received:
20
10
2020
accepted:
12
04
2021
pubmed:
28
4
2021
medline:
7
8
2021
entrez:
27
4
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Characterising and predicting species responses to anthropogenic global change is one of the key challenges in contemporary ecology and conservation. The sensitivity of marine species to climate change is increasingly being described with forecasted species distributions, yet these rarely account for population level processes such as genomic variation and local adaptation. This study compares inter- and intraspecific patterns of biological composition to determine how vulnerability to climate change, and its environmental drivers, vary across species and populations. We compare species trajectories for three ecologically important southern African marine invertebrates at two time points in the future, both at the species level, with correlative species distribution models, and at the population level, with gradient forest models. Reported range shifts are species-specific and include both predicted range gains and losses. Forecasted species responses to climate change are strongly influenced by changes in a suite of environmental variables, from sea surface salinity and sea surface temperature, to minimum air temperature. Our results further suggest a mismatch between future habitat suitability (where species can remain in their ecological niche) and genomic vulnerability (where populations retain their genomic composition), highlighting the inter- and intraspecific variability in species' sensitivity to global change. Overall, this study demonstrates the importance of considering species and population level climatic vulnerability when proactively managing coastal marine ecosystems in the Anthropocene.
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
3415-3431Informations de copyright
© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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