The spatiotemporal distribution of historical malaria cases in Sweden: a climatic perspective.
Epidemic
GIS
History
Infectious disease
Malaria
Plasmodium vivax
Summer precipitation
Summer temperature
Sweden
Journal
Malaria journal
ISSN: 1475-2875
Titre abrégé: Malar J
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101139802
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
01 May 2021
01 May 2021
Historique:
received:
17
12
2020
accepted:
20
04
2021
entrez:
2
5
2021
pubmed:
3
5
2021
medline:
14
9
2021
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Understanding of the impacts of climatic variability on human health remains poor despite a possibly increasing burden of vector-borne diseases under global warming. Numerous socioeconomic variables make such studies challenging during the modern period while studies of climate-disease relationships in historical times are constrained by a lack of long datasets. Previous studies have identified the occurrence of malaria vectors, and their dependence on climate variables, during historical times in northern Europe. Yet, malaria in Sweden in relation to climate variables is understudied and relationships have never been rigorously statistically established. This study seeks to examine the relationship between malaria and climate fluctuations, and to characterise the spatio-temporal variations at parish level during severe malaria years in Sweden 1749-1859. Symptom-based annual malaria case/death data were obtained from nationwide parish records and military hospital records in Stockholm. Pearson (r The number of malaria deaths showed the most significant positive relationship with warm-season temperature of the preceding year. The strongest correlation was found between malaria deaths and the mean temperature of the preceding June-August (r Unusually warm and/or dry summers appear to have contributed to malaria epidemics due to both indoor winter transmission and the evidenced long incubation and relapse time of P. vivax, but the results also highlight the difficulties in modelling climate-malaria associations. The inter-annual spatial variation of malaria hot-spots further shows that malaria outbreaks were more pronounced in the southern-most region of Sweden in the first half of the nineteenth century compared to the second half of the eighteenth century.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
Understanding of the impacts of climatic variability on human health remains poor despite a possibly increasing burden of vector-borne diseases under global warming. Numerous socioeconomic variables make such studies challenging during the modern period while studies of climate-disease relationships in historical times are constrained by a lack of long datasets. Previous studies have identified the occurrence of malaria vectors, and their dependence on climate variables, during historical times in northern Europe. Yet, malaria in Sweden in relation to climate variables is understudied and relationships have never been rigorously statistically established. This study seeks to examine the relationship between malaria and climate fluctuations, and to characterise the spatio-temporal variations at parish level during severe malaria years in Sweden 1749-1859.
METHODS
METHODS
Symptom-based annual malaria case/death data were obtained from nationwide parish records and military hospital records in Stockholm. Pearson (r
RESULTS
RESULTS
The number of malaria deaths showed the most significant positive relationship with warm-season temperature of the preceding year. The strongest correlation was found between malaria deaths and the mean temperature of the preceding June-August (r
CONCLUSIONS
CONCLUSIONS
Unusually warm and/or dry summers appear to have contributed to malaria epidemics due to both indoor winter transmission and the evidenced long incubation and relapse time of P. vivax, but the results also highlight the difficulties in modelling climate-malaria associations. The inter-annual spatial variation of malaria hot-spots further shows that malaria outbreaks were more pronounced in the southern-most region of Sweden in the first half of the nineteenth century compared to the second half of the eighteenth century.
Identifiants
pubmed: 33933085
doi: 10.1186/s12936-021-03744-9
pii: 10.1186/s12936-021-03744-9
pmc: PMC8088552
doi:
Types de publication
Historical Article
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
212Subventions
Organisme : Svenska Forskningsrådet Formas
ID : 2017-01161
Organisme : Vetenskapsrådet
ID : 2018-01272
Organisme : Sven and Lily Lawski foundation
ID : P2020-0009
Organisme : Svenska Sällskapet för Medicinsk Forskning
ID : post-doc scholarship
Organisme : Vetenskapsrådet
ID : 2016-04301
Organisme : Svenska Sällskapet för Medicinsk Forskning
ID : start-up grant
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