Modelling COVID-19 dynamics and potential for herd immunity by vaccination in Austria, Luxembourg and Sweden.
Bayesian inference
Cross-country comparison
Healthcare system
Markov Chain Monte Carlo
SEIR model
Journal
Journal of theoretical biology
ISSN: 1095-8541
Titre abrégé: J Theor Biol
Pays: England
ID NLM: 0376342
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
07 12 2021
07 12 2021
Historique:
received:
02
04
2021
revised:
28
07
2021
accepted:
16
08
2021
pubmed:
24
8
2021
medline:
6
10
2021
entrez:
23
8
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Against the COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions have been widely applied and vaccinations have taken off. The upcoming question is how the interplay between vaccinations and social measures will shape infections and hospitalizations. Hence, we extend the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model including these elements. We calibrate it to data of Luxembourg, Austria and Sweden until 15 December 2020. Sweden results having the highest fraction of undetected, Luxembourg of infected and all three being far from herd immunity in December. We quantify the level of social interaction, showing that a level around 1/3 of before the pandemic was still required in December to keep the effective reproduction number R
Identifiants
pubmed: 34425136
pii: S0022-5193(21)00293-9
doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2021.110874
pmc: PMC8378986
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
110874Subventions
Organisme : NIGMS NIH HHS
ID : P41 GM103426
Pays : United States
Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.