On the effect of COVID-19 pandemic in the excess of human mortality. The case of Brazil and Spain.
Journal
PloS one
ISSN: 1932-6203
Titre abrégé: PLoS One
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101285081
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
2021
2021
Historique:
received:
25
05
2021
accepted:
26
07
2021
entrez:
2
9
2021
pubmed:
3
9
2021
medline:
21
9
2021
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Excess of deaths is a technique used in epidemiology to assess the deaths caused by an unexpected event. For the present COVID-19 pandemic, we discuss the performance of some linear and nonlinear time series forecasting techniques widely used for modeling the actual pandemic and provide estimates for this metric from January 2020 to April 2021. We apply the results obtained to evaluate the evolution of the present pandemic in Brazil and Spain, which allows in particular to compare how well (or bad) these countries have managed the pandemic. For Brazil, our calculations refute the claim made by some officials that the present pandemic is "a little flu". Some studies suggest that the virus could be lying dormant across the world before been detected for the first time. In that regard, our results show that there is no evidence of deaths by the virus in 2019.
Identifiants
pubmed: 34473711
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0255909
pii: PONE-D-21-17228
pmc: PMC8412318
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
e0255909Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
Références
Nature. 2020 Mar;579(7798):270-273
pubmed: 32015507
Influenza Other Respir Viruses. 2013 Sep;7(5):863-71
pubmed: 23419002
Cien Saude Colet. 2020 Sep;25(9):3345-3354
pubmed: 32876246
Biometrics. 2020 Sep;76(3):789-798
pubmed: 31737902
Pathogens. 2020 Mar 20;9(3):
pubmed: 32245083
Am J Public Health. 1990 Sep;80(9):1080-6
pubmed: 2382745
PLoS One. 2021 Jan 7;16(1):e0244173
pubmed: 33411744
Environ Health Perspect. 2001 May;109(5):463-70
pubmed: 11401757
Nat Med. 2020 Dec;26(12):1919-1928
pubmed: 33057181
JAMA Intern Med. 2020 Oct 1;180(10):1336-1344
pubmed: 32609310
J Infect Public Health. 2020 Oct;13(10):1415-1418
pubmed: 32624404
Nat Med. 2020 Apr;26(4):450-452
pubmed: 32284615
Am J Epidemiol. 1981 Jan;113(1):30-43
pubmed: 7457477
Lancet Microbe. 2021 Feb;2(2):e79-e87
pubmed: 33495759
Innovation (N Y). 2020 Nov 25;1(3):100061
pubmed: 33169119
Sci Total Environ. 2021 Jul 15;778:146198
pubmed: 33714813
Lancet Microbe. 2021 May;2(5):e180
pubmed: 33969328
Gac Sanit. 2015 Jul-Aug;29(4):258-65
pubmed: 25770916
Lancet. 2020 May 30;395(10238):1715-1725
pubmed: 32405103
Ann Intern Med. 2020 Aug 18;173(4):262-267
pubmed: 32422057