The impact of re-opening the international border on COVID-19 hospitalisations in Australia: a modelling study.
Adolescent
Adult
Aged
Australia
/ epidemiology
COVID-19
/ epidemiology
Communicable Disease Control
/ methods
Communicable Diseases, Imported
/ epidemiology
Computer Simulation
Disease Outbreaks
Female
Hospitalization
/ statistics & numerical data
Humans
Male
Middle Aged
SARS-CoV-2
Vaccination Coverage
/ statistics & numerical data
Young Adult
COVID-19
Disease transmission
Epidemiology
Health systems
Models
Public health
Risk management
infectious
statistical
Journal
The Medical journal of Australia
ISSN: 1326-5377
Titre abrégé: Med J Aust
Pays: Australia
ID NLM: 0400714
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
17 01 2022
17 01 2022
Historique:
revised:
03
09
2021
received:
11
08
2021
accepted:
08
09
2021
pubmed:
12
10
2021
medline:
27
1
2022
entrez:
11
10
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
To estimate the numbers of COVID-19-related hospitalisations in Australia after re-opening the international border. Population-level deterministic compartmental epidemic modelling of eight scenarios applying various assumptions regarding SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility (baseline R Simulation population size, age structure, and age-based contact rates based on recent estimates for the Australian population. We assumed that 80% vaccination coverage of people aged 16 years or more was reached in mid-October 2021 (fast rollout) or early January 2022 (slow rollout). Numbers of people admitted to hospital with COVID-19, December 2021 - December 2022. In scenarios assuming a highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variant (R If highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants are circulating locally or overseas, large and disruptive COVID-19 outbreaks will still be possible in Australia after 80% of people aged 16 years or more have been vaccinated. Continuing public health measures to restrict the spread of disease are likely to be necessary throughout 2022.
Identifiants
pubmed: 34633100
doi: 10.5694/mja2.51291
pmc: PMC8662022
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
39-42Subventions
Organisme : National Health and Medical Research Council
ID : #1137582
Organisme : Medical Research Future Fund
Organisme : Australian Research Data Commons
Organisme : Australian Department of Health
Organisme : Sydney Partnership for Health, Education, Research and Enterprise
Organisme : Ingham Institute for Applied Medical Research
Informations de copyright
© 2021 The Authors. Medical Journal of Australia published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of AMPCo Pty Ltd.
Références
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Med J Aust. 2021 Feb;214(2):79-83
pubmed: 33207390
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pubmed: 34345875
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pubmed: 33908054