Reduced mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, 2020: a two-stage interrupted time-series design.
All-cause death
COVID-19
Japan
excess mortality
two-stage interrupted time-series design
Journal
International journal of epidemiology
ISSN: 1464-3685
Titre abrégé: Int J Epidemiol
Pays: England
ID NLM: 7802871
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
18 02 2022
18 02 2022
Historique:
received:
30
03
2021
accepted:
15
09
2021
pubmed:
1
11
2021
medline:
24
2
2022
entrez:
31
10
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to be a major global health burden. This study aims to estimate the all-cause excess mortality occurring in the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, 2020, by sex and age group. Daily time series of mortality for the period January 2015-December 2020 in all 47 prefectures of Japan were obtained from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan. A two-stage interrupted time-series design was used to calculate excess mortality. In the first stage, we estimated excess mortality by prefecture using quasi-Poisson regression models in combination with distributed lag non-linear models, adjusting for seasonal and long-term variations, weather conditions and influenza activity. In the second stage, we used a random-effects multivariate meta-analysis to synthesize prefecture-specific estimates at the nationwide level. In 2020, we estimated an all-cause excess mortality of -20 982 deaths [95% empirical confidence intervals (eCI): -38 367 to -5472] in Japan, which corresponded to a percentage excess of -1.7% (95% eCI: -3.1 to -0.5) relative to the expected value. Reduced deaths were observed for both sexes and in all age groups except those aged <60 and 70-79 years. All-cause mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan in 2020 was decreased compared with a historical baseline. Further evaluation of cause-specific excess mortality is warranted.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to be a major global health burden. This study aims to estimate the all-cause excess mortality occurring in the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan, 2020, by sex and age group.
METHODS
Daily time series of mortality for the period January 2015-December 2020 in all 47 prefectures of Japan were obtained from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan. A two-stage interrupted time-series design was used to calculate excess mortality. In the first stage, we estimated excess mortality by prefecture using quasi-Poisson regression models in combination with distributed lag non-linear models, adjusting for seasonal and long-term variations, weather conditions and influenza activity. In the second stage, we used a random-effects multivariate meta-analysis to synthesize prefecture-specific estimates at the nationwide level.
RESULTS
In 2020, we estimated an all-cause excess mortality of -20 982 deaths [95% empirical confidence intervals (eCI): -38 367 to -5472] in Japan, which corresponded to a percentage excess of -1.7% (95% eCI: -3.1 to -0.5) relative to the expected value. Reduced deaths were observed for both sexes and in all age groups except those aged <60 and 70-79 years.
CONCLUSIONS
All-cause mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan in 2020 was decreased compared with a historical baseline. Further evaluation of cause-specific excess mortality is warranted.
Identifiants
pubmed: 34718594
pii: 6413683
doi: 10.1093/ije/dyab216
pmc: PMC8856001
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Meta-Analysis
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
75-84Subventions
Organisme : Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare
ID : JPMH20HA2007
Organisme : Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) KAKENHI
ID : JP18K11666
Organisme : Japan Society for the Promotion of Science
Organisme : KAKENHI
ID : JP18K11666
Informations de copyright
© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.
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