Forecasting future prevalence and gender differences in binge drinking among young adults through 2040.
adolescents
binge drinking
forecasting
gender differences
young adults
Journal
Alcoholism, clinical and experimental research
ISSN: 1530-0277
Titre abrégé: Alcohol Clin Exp Res
Pays: England
ID NLM: 7707242
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
10 2021
10 2021
Historique:
revised:
21
06
2021
received:
22
02
2021
accepted:
29
07
2021
pubmed:
7
11
2021
medline:
3
3
2022
entrez:
6
11
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Binge drinking among adolescents and young adults has changed over time, but patterns differ by age and gender. Identifying high-risk groups to target future efforts at reducing drinking in this population remains a public health priority. Forecasting methods can provide a better understanding of variation and determinants of future binge drinking prevalence. We implemented regression-based forecasting models to estimate the prevalence and gender differences in binge drinking among cohort groups of U.S. young adults, ages 18, 23-24, and 29-30 through 2040. Forecasting models were adjusted for covariates accounting for changes in demographic, Big-5 social roles (e.g., residential independence), and drinking norms and related substance use, to understand the drivers of forecasted binge drinking estimates. From the last observed cohort group (years varied by age) through 2040, unadjusted binge drinking prevalence was forecasted to decrease from 26% (95% CI: 20, 33%) (2011-15) to 11% (95% CI: 4, 27%) at age 18, decrease from 38% (95% CI: 30, 45%) (2006-2010) to 34% (95% CI: 18, 55%) at ages 23/24, and increase from 32% (95% CI: 25, 40%) (2001-2005) to 35% (95% CI: 16, 59%) at ages 29/30. Gender-stratified forecasts show a continuation in the narrowing of binge drinking prevalence between young men and women, though the magnitude of narrowing differs by age. Estimated trends were partially explained by changing norms regarding drinking and other substance use, though these indirect effects explained less of the total trend as age increased. Understanding how covariates influence binge drinking trends can guide public health policies to leverage the most important determinants of future binge drinking to reduce the harm caused by binge drinking from adolescence to adulthood.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
Binge drinking among adolescents and young adults has changed over time, but patterns differ by age and gender. Identifying high-risk groups to target future efforts at reducing drinking in this population remains a public health priority. Forecasting methods can provide a better understanding of variation and determinants of future binge drinking prevalence.
METHODS
We implemented regression-based forecasting models to estimate the prevalence and gender differences in binge drinking among cohort groups of U.S. young adults, ages 18, 23-24, and 29-30 through 2040. Forecasting models were adjusted for covariates accounting for changes in demographic, Big-5 social roles (e.g., residential independence), and drinking norms and related substance use, to understand the drivers of forecasted binge drinking estimates.
RESULTS
From the last observed cohort group (years varied by age) through 2040, unadjusted binge drinking prevalence was forecasted to decrease from 26% (95% CI: 20, 33%) (2011-15) to 11% (95% CI: 4, 27%) at age 18, decrease from 38% (95% CI: 30, 45%) (2006-2010) to 34% (95% CI: 18, 55%) at ages 23/24, and increase from 32% (95% CI: 25, 40%) (2001-2005) to 35% (95% CI: 16, 59%) at ages 29/30. Gender-stratified forecasts show a continuation in the narrowing of binge drinking prevalence between young men and women, though the magnitude of narrowing differs by age. Estimated trends were partially explained by changing norms regarding drinking and other substance use, though these indirect effects explained less of the total trend as age increased.
CONCLUSIONS
Understanding how covariates influence binge drinking trends can guide public health policies to leverage the most important determinants of future binge drinking to reduce the harm caused by binge drinking from adolescence to adulthood.
Identifiants
pubmed: 34741556
doi: 10.1111/acer.14690
pmc: PMC9066164
mid: NIHMS1798127
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
2069-2079Subventions
Organisme : NIAAA NIH HHS
ID : R01 AA026861
Pays : United States
Organisme : NIDA NIH HHS
ID : R01 DA001411
Pays : United States
Organisme : NIDA NIH HHS
ID : R01 DA016575
Pays : United States
Organisme : NIAAA NIH HHS
ID : R01AA026861
Pays : United States
Informations de copyright
© 2021 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.
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