Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature in Pune city, India: A time series analysis from 2004 to 2012.
Cold
Dlnm
Heat
India
Mortality
Pune
Temperature
Journal
Environmental research
ISSN: 1096-0953
Titre abrégé: Environ Res
Pays: Netherlands
ID NLM: 0147621
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
03 2022
03 2022
Historique:
received:
16
09
2021
revised:
24
10
2021
accepted:
26
10
2021
pubmed:
9
11
2021
medline:
1
4
2022
entrez:
8
11
2021
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Exposure to high and low ambient temperatures is associated with morbidity and mortality across the globe. Most of these studies assessing the effects of non-optimum temperatures on health and have been conducted in the developed world, whereas in India, the limited evidence on ambient temperature and health risks and has focused mostly on the effects of heat waves. Here we quantify short term association between all temperatures and mortality in urban Pune, India. We applied a time series regression model to derive temperature-mortality associations based on daily mean temperature and all-cause mortality records of Pune city from year January 2004 to December 2012. We estimated high and low temperature-mortality relationships by using standard time series quasi-Poisson regression in conjunction with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). We calculated temperature attributable mortality fractions for total heat and total cold. The analysis provides estimates of the total mortality burden attributable to ambient temperature. Overall, 6∙5% [95%CI 1.76-11∙43] of deaths registered in the observational period were attributed to non-optimal temperatures, cold effect was greater 5.72% [95%CI 0∙70-10∙06] than heat 0∙84% [0∙35-1∙34]. The gender stratified analysis revealed that the highest burden among men both for heat and cold. Non-optimal temperatures are associated with a substantial mortality burden. Our findings could benefit national, and local communities in developing preparedness and prevention strategies to reduce weather-related impacts immediately due to climate change.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
Exposure to high and low ambient temperatures is associated with morbidity and mortality across the globe. Most of these studies assessing the effects of non-optimum temperatures on health and have been conducted in the developed world, whereas in India, the limited evidence on ambient temperature and health risks and has focused mostly on the effects of heat waves. Here we quantify short term association between all temperatures and mortality in urban Pune, India.
METHODS
We applied a time series regression model to derive temperature-mortality associations based on daily mean temperature and all-cause mortality records of Pune city from year January 2004 to December 2012. We estimated high and low temperature-mortality relationships by using standard time series quasi-Poisson regression in conjunction with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). We calculated temperature attributable mortality fractions for total heat and total cold.
FINDINGS
The analysis provides estimates of the total mortality burden attributable to ambient temperature. Overall, 6∙5% [95%CI 1.76-11∙43] of deaths registered in the observational period were attributed to non-optimal temperatures, cold effect was greater 5.72% [95%CI 0∙70-10∙06] than heat 0∙84% [0∙35-1∙34]. The gender stratified analysis revealed that the highest burden among men both for heat and cold.
CONCLUSION
Non-optimal temperatures are associated with a substantial mortality burden. Our findings could benefit national, and local communities in developing preparedness and prevention strategies to reduce weather-related impacts immediately due to climate change.
Identifiants
pubmed: 34743894
pii: S0013-9351(21)01605-4
doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.112304
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
112304Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.