Precipitation variability and risk of infectious disease in children under 5 years for 32 countries: a global analysis using Demographic and Health Survey data.
Journal
The Lancet. Planetary health
ISSN: 2542-5196
Titre abrégé: Lancet Planet Health
Pays: Netherlands
ID NLM: 101704339
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
02 2022
02 2022
Historique:
received:
17
12
2020
revised:
04
11
2021
accepted:
19
11
2021
pubmed:
13
2
2022
medline:
22
3
2022
entrez:
12
2
2022
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Precipitation variability is a potentially important driver of infectious diseases that are leading causes of child morbidity and mortality worldwide. Disentangling the links between precipitation variability and disease risk is crucial in a changing climate. We aimed to investigate the links between precipitation variability and reported symptoms of infectious disease (cough, fever, and diarrhoea) in children younger than 5 years. We used nationally representative survey data collected between 2014 and 2019 from Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) surveys for 32 low-income to middle-income countries in combination with high-resolution precipitation data (via the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station dataset). We only included DHS data for which interview dates and GPS coordinates (latitude and longitude) of household clusters were available. We used a regression modelling approach to assess the relationship between different precipitation variability measures and infectious disease symptoms (cough, fever, and diarrhoea), and explored the effect modification of different climate zones and disease susceptibility factors. Our global analysis showed that anomalously wet conditions increase the risk of cough, fever, and diarrhoea symptoms in humid, subtropical regions. These health risks also increased in tropical savanna regions as a result of anomalously dry conditions. Our analysis of susceptibility factors suggests that unimproved sanitation and unsafe drinking water sources are exacerbating these effects, particularly for rural populations and in drought-prone areas in tropical savanna. Weather shifts can affect the survival and transmission of pathogens that are particularly harmful to young children. As our findings show, the health burden of climate-sensitive infectious diseases can be substantial and is likely to fall on populations that are already among the most disadvantaged, including households living in remote rural areas and those lacking access to safe water and sanitation infrastructure. University of California, San Diego FY19 Center Launch programme.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
Precipitation variability is a potentially important driver of infectious diseases that are leading causes of child morbidity and mortality worldwide. Disentangling the links between precipitation variability and disease risk is crucial in a changing climate. We aimed to investigate the links between precipitation variability and reported symptoms of infectious disease (cough, fever, and diarrhoea) in children younger than 5 years.
METHODS
We used nationally representative survey data collected between 2014 and 2019 from Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) surveys for 32 low-income to middle-income countries in combination with high-resolution precipitation data (via the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station dataset). We only included DHS data for which interview dates and GPS coordinates (latitude and longitude) of household clusters were available. We used a regression modelling approach to assess the relationship between different precipitation variability measures and infectious disease symptoms (cough, fever, and diarrhoea), and explored the effect modification of different climate zones and disease susceptibility factors.
FINDINGS
Our global analysis showed that anomalously wet conditions increase the risk of cough, fever, and diarrhoea symptoms in humid, subtropical regions. These health risks also increased in tropical savanna regions as a result of anomalously dry conditions. Our analysis of susceptibility factors suggests that unimproved sanitation and unsafe drinking water sources are exacerbating these effects, particularly for rural populations and in drought-prone areas in tropical savanna.
INTERPRETATION
Weather shifts can affect the survival and transmission of pathogens that are particularly harmful to young children. As our findings show, the health burden of climate-sensitive infectious diseases can be substantial and is likely to fall on populations that are already among the most disadvantaged, including households living in remote rural areas and those lacking access to safe water and sanitation infrastructure.
FUNDING
University of California, San Diego FY19 Center Launch programme.
Identifiants
pubmed: 35150623
pii: S2542-5196(21)00325-9
doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00325-9
pii:
doi:
Substances chimiques
Drinking Water
0
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
e147-e155Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2022 Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
Declaration of interests We declare no competing interests.