Nowcasting (Short-Term Forecasting) of COVID-19 Hospitalizations Using Syndromic Healthcare Data, Sweden, 2020.
2020. Emerg Infect Dis. 2022 Mar [date cited]. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2803.210267
COVID-19
Dahlström Ö
Eriksson O
Jöud A
Källström R
SARS-CoV-2
Soltesz K
Suggested citation for this article: Spreco A
Sweden
coronavirus disease
epidemiology
et al. Nowcasting (short-term forecasting) of COVID-19 hospitalizations using syndromic healthcare data
forecasting
infectious diseases
medical informatics
nowcasting
public health
respiratory infections
severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
viruses
zoonoses
Journal
Emerging infectious diseases
ISSN: 1080-6059
Titre abrégé: Emerg Infect Dis
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 9508155
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
03 2022
03 2022
Historique:
entrez:
24
2
2022
pubmed:
25
2
2022
medline:
3
3
2022
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
We report on local nowcasting (short-term forecasting) of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) hospitalizations based on syndromic (symptom) data recorded in regular healthcare routines in Östergötland County (population ≈465,000), Sweden, early in the pandemic, when broad laboratory testing was unavailable. Daily nowcasts were supplied to the local healthcare management based on analyses of the time lag between telenursing calls with the chief complaints (cough by adult or fever by adult) and COVID-19 hospitalization. The complaint cough by adult showed satisfactory performance (Pearson correlation coefficient r>0.80; mean absolute percentage error <20%) in nowcasting the incidence of daily COVID-19 hospitalizations 14 days in advance until the incidence decreased to <1.5/100,000 population, whereas the corresponding performance for fever by adult was unsatisfactory. Our results support local nowcasting of hospitalizations on the basis of symptom data recorded in routine healthcare during the initial stage of a pandemic.
Identifiants
pubmed: 35201737
doi: 10.3201/eid2803.210267
pmc: PMC8888224
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
564-571Références
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