A simple risk score for mortality including the PCR Ct value upon admission in patients hospitalized due to COVID-19.
COVID-19
Ct value
Mortality
Risk score
SARS-CoV-2
Journal
Infection
ISSN: 1439-0973
Titre abrégé: Infection
Pays: Germany
ID NLM: 0365307
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Oct 2022
Oct 2022
Historique:
received:
14
10
2021
accepted:
10
02
2022
pubmed:
27
2
2022
medline:
4
10
2022
entrez:
26
2
2022
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
To develop a simple score for the outcomes from COVID-19 that integrates information obtained at the time of admission including the Ct value (cycle threshold) for SARS-CoV-2. Patients with COVID-19 hospitalized from February 1st to May 31st 2021 in RoMed hospitals, Germany, were included. Clinical and laboratory parameters upon admission were recorded and patients followed until discharge or death. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine predictors of outcomes. Regression coefficients were used to develop a risk score for death. Of 289 patients (46% female, median age 66 years), 29% underwent high-flow nasal oxygen (HFNO) therapy, 28% were admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU, 51% put on invasive ventilation, IV), and 15% died. Age > 70 years, oxygen saturation ≤ 90%, oxygen supply upon admission, eGFR ≤ 60 ml/min and Ct value ≤ 26 were significant (p < 0.05 each) predictors for death, to which 2, 2, 1, 1 and 2 score points, respectively, could be attributed. Sum scores of ≥ 4 or ≥ 5 points were associated with a sensitivity of 95.0% or 82.5%, and a specificity of 72.5% or 81.7% regarding death. The high predictive value of the score was confirmed using data obtained between December 15th 2020 and January 31st 2021 (n = 215). In COVID-19 patients, a simple scoring system based on data available shortly after hospital admission including the Ct value had a high predictive value for death. The score may also be useful to estimate the likelihood for required interventions at an early stage.
Identifiants
pubmed: 35218511
doi: 10.1007/s15010-022-01783-1
pii: 10.1007/s15010-022-01783-1
pmc: PMC8881702
doi:
Substances chimiques
Oxygen
S88TT14065
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
1155-1163Informations de copyright
© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany.
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