Independent External Validation of the METSSS Model Predicting Survival After Palliative Radiotherapy.
Palliative radiation therapy
bone metastases
brain metastases
comorbidity
prognostic model
radiotherapy
Journal
Anticancer research
ISSN: 1791-7530
Titre abrégé: Anticancer Res
Pays: Greece
ID NLM: 8102988
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Mar 2022
Mar 2022
Historique:
received:
19
11
2021
revised:
12
01
2022
accepted:
13
01
2022
entrez:
27
2
2022
pubmed:
28
2
2022
medline:
8
3
2022
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
A validation of the recently published METSSS model (developed from a large US database) predicting survival after palliative radiotherapy was performed. METSSS includes age, sex, cancer type, localization of distant metastases, comorbidity, and radiotherapy site. Both 1- and 5-year survival was assessed in the validation cohort. Deviations between model-predicted and observed survival were analyzed. The METSSS model predicted a 1-year survival of 29% (cohort median, predicted probability 0-74% in individual patients). The observed 1-year survival rate was 33% (median survival 5.3 months). The corresponding figures for predicted 5-year survival were 0% and 0-46% (observed rate 3%). Statistical comparison of the survival curves was possible for two of three strata (insufficient number of low-risk patients) and the resulting p-value was 0.045. A complete validation was hampered by imbalances in group size. More than 90% of our patients were classified as high risk. If this distribution is representative for other countries, the METSSS model might need adjustment. However, its general ability to predict survival appears promising.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND/AIM
OBJECTIVE
A validation of the recently published METSSS model (developed from a large US database) predicting survival after palliative radiotherapy was performed. METSSS includes age, sex, cancer type, localization of distant metastases, comorbidity, and radiotherapy site.
PATIENTS AND METHODS
METHODS
Both 1- and 5-year survival was assessed in the validation cohort. Deviations between model-predicted and observed survival were analyzed.
RESULTS
RESULTS
The METSSS model predicted a 1-year survival of 29% (cohort median, predicted probability 0-74% in individual patients). The observed 1-year survival rate was 33% (median survival 5.3 months). The corresponding figures for predicted 5-year survival were 0% and 0-46% (observed rate 3%). Statistical comparison of the survival curves was possible for two of three strata (insufficient number of low-risk patients) and the resulting p-value was 0.045.
CONCLUSION
CONCLUSIONS
A complete validation was hampered by imbalances in group size. More than 90% of our patients were classified as high risk. If this distribution is representative for other countries, the METSSS model might need adjustment. However, its general ability to predict survival appears promising.
Identifiants
pubmed: 35220241
pii: 42/3/1477
doi: 10.21873/anticanres.15618
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Validation Study
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
1477-1480Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2022 International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. George J. Delinasios), All rights reserved.