App-based COVID-19 syndromic surveillance and prediction of hospital admissions in COVID Symptom Study Sweden.
Journal
Nature communications
ISSN: 2041-1723
Titre abrégé: Nat Commun
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101528555
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
21 04 2022
21 04 2022
Historique:
received:
20
08
2021
accepted:
24
03
2022
entrez:
22
4
2022
pubmed:
23
4
2022
medline:
26
4
2022
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
The app-based COVID Symptom Study was launched in Sweden in April 2020 to contribute to real-time COVID-19 surveillance. We enrolled 143,531 study participants (≥18 years) who contributed 10.6 million daily symptom reports between April 29, 2020 and February 10, 2021. Here, we include data from 19,161 self-reported PCR tests to create a symptom-based model to estimate the individual probability of symptomatic COVID-19, with an AUC of 0.78 (95% CI 0.74-0.83) in an external dataset. These individual probabilities are employed to estimate daily regional COVID-19 prevalence, which are in turn used together with current hospital data to predict next week COVID-19 hospital admissions. We show that this hospital prediction model demonstrates a lower median absolute percentage error (MdAPE: 25.9%) across the five most populated regions in Sweden during the first pandemic wave than a model based on case notifications (MdAPE: 30.3%). During the second wave, the error rates are similar. When we apply the same model to an English dataset, not including local COVID-19 test data, we observe MdAPEs of 22.3% and 19.0% during the first and second pandemic waves, respectively, highlighting the transferability of the prediction model.
Identifiants
pubmed: 35449172
doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-29608-7
pii: 10.1038/s41467-022-29608-7
pmc: PMC9023535
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
2110Subventions
Organisme : Department of Health
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : Wellcome Trust
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : Medical Research Council
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : British Heart Foundation
Pays : United Kingdom
Informations de copyright
© 2022. The Author(s).
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