Early prediction of acute necrotizing pancreatitis by artificial intelligence: a prospective cohort-analysis of 2387 cases.


Journal

Scientific reports
ISSN: 2045-2322
Titre abrégé: Sci Rep
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101563288

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
12 05 2022
Historique:
received: 14 12 2021
accepted: 07 04 2022
entrez: 13 5 2022
pubmed: 14 5 2022
medline: 18 5 2022
Statut: epublish

Résumé

Pancreatic necrosis is a consistent prognostic factor in acute pancreatitis (AP). However, the clinical scores currently in use are either too complicated or require data that are unavailable on admission or lack sufficient predictive value. We therefore aimed to develop a tool to aid in necrosis prediction. The XGBoost machine learning algorithm processed data from 2387 patients with AP. The confidence of the model was estimated by a bootstrapping method and interpreted via the 10th and the 90th percentiles of the prediction scores. Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values were calculated to quantify the contribution of each variable provided. Finally, the model was implemented as an online application using the Streamlit Python-based framework. The XGBoost classifier provided an AUC value of 0.757. Glucose, C-reactive protein, alkaline phosphatase, gender and total white blood cell count have the most impact on prediction based on the SHAP values. The relationship between the size of the training dataset and model performance shows that prediction performance can be improved. This study combines necrosis prediction and artificial intelligence. The predictive potential of this model is comparable to the current clinical scoring systems and has several advantages over them.

Identifiants

pubmed: 35552440
doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-11517-w
pii: 10.1038/s41598-022-11517-w
pmc: PMC9098474
doi:

Types de publication

Journal Article Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

Langues

eng

Sous-ensembles de citation

IM

Pagination

7827

Investigateurs

Szabolcs Kiss (S)
Nelli Farkas (N)
Zoltán Sipos (Z)
Péter Fehérvári (P)
László Pecze (L)
Mária Földi (M)
Áron Vincze (Á)
Tamás Takács (T)
László Czakó (L)
Ferenc Izbéki (F)
Adrienn Halász (A)
Eszter Boros (E)
József Hamvas (J)
Márta Varga (M)
Artautas Mickevicius (A)
Nándor Faluhelyi (N)
Orsolya Farkas (O)
Szilárd Váncsa (S)
Rita Nagy (R)
Stefania Bunduc (S)
Péter Jenő Hegyi (PJ)
Katalin Márta (K)
Katalin Borka (K)
Attila Doros (A)
Nóra Hosszúfalusi (N)
László Zubek (L)
Bálint Erőss (B)
Zsolt Molnár (Z)
Andrea Párniczky (A)
Péter Hegyi (P)
Andrea Szentesi (A)
Judit Bajor (J)
Szilárd Gódi (S)
Patrícia Sarlós (P)
József Czimmer (J)
Imre Szabó (I)
Gabriella Pár (G)
Anita Illés (A)
Roland Hágendorn (R)
Balázs Csaba Németh (BC)
Balázs Kui (B)
Dóra Illés (D)
László Gajdán (L)
Veronika Dunás-Varga (V)
Roland Fejes (R)
Mária Papp (M)
Zsuzsanna Vitális (Z)
János Novák (J)
Imola Török (I)
Melania Macarie (M)
Elena Ramírez-Maldonado (E)
Ville Sallinen (V)
Shamil Galeev (S)
Barnabás Bod (B)
Ali Tüzün Ince (AT)
Dániel Pécsi (D)
Péter Varjú (P)
Márk Félix Juhász (MF)
Klementina Ocskay (K)
Alexandra Mikó (A)
Zsolt Szakács (Z)

Informations de copyright

© 2022. The Author(s).

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Auteurs

Szabolcs Kiss (S)

Doctoral School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Szeged, Szeged, 6720, Hungary.
Institute for Translational Medicine, Szentágothai Research Centre, Medical School, University of Pécs, Szigeti út 12., II. Emelet, Pécs, 7624, Hungary.
Heim Pál National Pediatric Institute, Üllői út 86, Budapest, 1089, Hungary.

József Pintér (J)

Human and Social Data Science Lab, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Műegyetem rkp. 3, Budapest, 1111, Hungary.

Roland Molontay (R)

Human and Social Data Science Lab, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Műegyetem rkp. 3, Budapest, 1111, Hungary.
Stochastics Research Group, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Egry József u. 1, Budapest, 1111, Hungary.

Marcell Nagy (M)

Human and Social Data Science Lab, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Műegyetem rkp. 3, Budapest, 1111, Hungary.

Nelli Farkas (N)

Institute for Translational Medicine, Szentágothai Research Centre, Medical School, University of Pécs, Szigeti út 12., II. Emelet, Pécs, 7624, Hungary.
Institute of Bioanalysis, Medical School, University of Pécs, Honvéd u. 1, Pécs, 7624, Hungary.

Zoltán Sipos (Z)

Institute for Translational Medicine, Szentágothai Research Centre, Medical School, University of Pécs, Szigeti út 12., II. Emelet, Pécs, 7624, Hungary.

Péter Fehérvári (P)

Institute for Translational Medicine, Szentágothai Research Centre, Medical School, University of Pécs, Szigeti út 12., II. Emelet, Pécs, 7624, Hungary.
Department of Biomathematics and Informatics, University of Veterinary Medicine, István u. 2, Budapest, 1078, Hungary.

László Pecze (L)

Institute for Translational Medicine, Szentágothai Research Centre, Medical School, University of Pécs, Szigeti út 12., II. Emelet, Pécs, 7624, Hungary.

Mária Földi (M)

Doctoral School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Szeged, Szeged, 6720, Hungary.
Institute for Translational Medicine, Szentágothai Research Centre, Medical School, University of Pécs, Szigeti út 12., II. Emelet, Pécs, 7624, Hungary.
Heim Pál National Pediatric Institute, Üllői út 86, Budapest, 1089, Hungary.

Áron Vincze (Á)

Division of Gastroenterology, First Department of Medicine, Medical School, University of Pécs, Ifjúság út 13, Pécs, 7624, Hungary.

Tamás Takács (T)

Department of Medicine, University of Szeged, Kálvária sgt. 57, Szeged, 6725, Hungary.

László Czakó (L)

Department of Medicine, University of Szeged, Kálvária sgt. 57, Szeged, 6725, Hungary.

Ferenc Izbéki (F)

Department of Internal Medicine, Szent György Teaching Hospital of County Fejér, Seregélyesi út 3, Székesfehérvár, 8000, Hungary.

Adrienn Halász (A)

Doctoral School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Szeged, Szeged, 6720, Hungary.
Department of Internal Medicine, Szent György Teaching Hospital of County Fejér, Seregélyesi út 3, Székesfehérvár, 8000, Hungary.

Eszter Boros (E)

Department of Internal Medicine, Szent György Teaching Hospital of County Fejér, Seregélyesi út 3, Székesfehérvár, 8000, Hungary.

József Hamvas (J)

Bajcsy-Zsilinszky Hospital, Maglódi út 89-91, Budapest, 1106, Hungary.

Márta Varga (M)

Department of Gastroenterology, BMKK Dr Rethy Pal Hospital, Gyulai út 18, Békéscsaba, 5600, Hungary.

Artautas Mickevicius (A)

Vilnius University Hospital Santaros Clinics, Clinics of Abdominal Surgery, Nephrourology and Gastroenterology, Faculty of Medicine, Vilnius University, Santariškių g. 2, 08410, Vilnius, Lithuania.

Nándor Faluhelyi (N)

Department of Medical Imaging, Medical School, University of Pécs, Ifjúság út 13, Pécs, 7624, Hungary.

Orsolya Farkas (O)

Department of Medical Imaging, Medical School, University of Pécs, Ifjúság út 13, Pécs, 7624, Hungary.

Szilárd Váncsa (S)

Institute for Translational Medicine, Szentágothai Research Centre, Medical School, University of Pécs, Szigeti út 12., II. Emelet, Pécs, 7624, Hungary.
Centre for Translational Medicine, Semmelweis University, Üllői út 26, Budapest, 1085, Hungary.

Rita Nagy (R)

Institute for Translational Medicine, Szentágothai Research Centre, Medical School, University of Pécs, Szigeti út 12., II. Emelet, Pécs, 7624, Hungary.
Heim Pál National Pediatric Institute, Üllői út 86, Budapest, 1089, Hungary.
Centre for Translational Medicine, Semmelweis University, Üllői út 26, Budapest, 1085, Hungary.

Stefania Bunduc (S)

Centre for Translational Medicine, Semmelweis University, Üllői út 26, Budapest, 1085, Hungary.
Doctoral School, Carol Davila University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Bulevardul Eroii Sanitari 8, 050474, Bucharest, Romania.

Péter Jenő Hegyi (PJ)

Centre for Translational Medicine, Semmelweis University, Üllői út 26, Budapest, 1085, Hungary.
Division of Pancreatic Diseases, Heart and Vascular Center, Semmelweis University, Baross u. 23, Budapest, 1082, Hungary.

Katalin Márta (K)

Centre for Translational Medicine, Semmelweis University, Üllői út 26, Budapest, 1085, Hungary.
Division of Pancreatic Diseases, Heart and Vascular Center, Semmelweis University, Baross u. 23, Budapest, 1082, Hungary.

Katalin Borka (K)

Centre for Translational Medicine, Semmelweis University, Üllői út 26, Budapest, 1085, Hungary.
2nd Department of Pathology, Semmelweis University, Üllői út 93, Budapest, 1091, Hungary.

Attila Doros (A)

Centre for Translational Medicine, Semmelweis University, Üllői út 26, Budapest, 1085, Hungary.
Department of Transplantation and Surgery, Semmelweis University, Baross u. 23, Budapest, 1082, Hungary.

Nóra Hosszúfalusi (N)

Centre for Translational Medicine, Semmelweis University, Üllői út 26, Budapest, 1085, Hungary.
Department of Internal Medicine and Hematology, Semmelweis University, Szentkirályi u. 46, Budapest, 1088, Hungary.

László Zubek (L)

Centre for Translational Medicine, Semmelweis University, Üllői út 26, Budapest, 1085, Hungary.
Department of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Therapy, Semmelweis University, Üllői út 78, Budapest, 1082, Hungary.

Bálint Erőss (B)

Centre for Translational Medicine, Semmelweis University, Üllői út 26, Budapest, 1085, Hungary.
Division of Pancreatic Diseases, Heart and Vascular Center, Semmelweis University, Baross u. 23, Budapest, 1082, Hungary.

Zsolt Molnár (Z)

Centre for Translational Medicine, Semmelweis University, Üllői út 26, Budapest, 1085, Hungary.
Department of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Therapy, Semmelweis University, Üllői út 78, Budapest, 1082, Hungary.
Department of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Therapy, Poznan University of Medical Sciences, ul. św. Marii Magdaleny 14, 61861, Poznan, Wielkopolska, Poland.

Andrea Párniczky (A)

Institute for Translational Medicine, Szentágothai Research Centre, Medical School, University of Pécs, Szigeti út 12., II. Emelet, Pécs, 7624, Hungary.
Heim Pál National Pediatric Institute, Üllői út 86, Budapest, 1089, Hungary.

Péter Hegyi (P)

Institute for Translational Medicine, Szentágothai Research Centre, Medical School, University of Pécs, Szigeti út 12., II. Emelet, Pécs, 7624, Hungary.
Centre for Translational Medicine, Semmelweis University, Üllői út 26, Budapest, 1085, Hungary.
Division of Pancreatic Diseases, Heart and Vascular Center, Semmelweis University, Baross u. 23, Budapest, 1082, Hungary.

Andrea Szentesi (A)

Doctoral School of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Szeged, Szeged, 6720, Hungary. szentesiai@gmail.com.
Institute for Translational Medicine, Szentágothai Research Centre, Medical School, University of Pécs, Szigeti út 12., II. Emelet, Pécs, 7624, Hungary. szentesiai@gmail.com.

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