Heat-Related Mortality in Germany From 1992 to 2021.
Journal
Deutsches Arzteblatt international
ISSN: 1866-0452
Titre abrégé: Dtsch Arztebl Int
Pays: Germany
ID NLM: 101475967
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
01 07 2022
01 07 2022
Historique:
received:
21
12
2021
revised:
21
12
2021
accepted:
13
04
2022
pubmed:
19
5
2022
medline:
4
11
2022
entrez:
18
5
2022
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
2018-2020 were unusually warm years in Germany, and the summer of 2018 was the second warmest summer since record-keeping began in 1881. Higher temperatures regularly lead to increased mortality, particularly among the elderly. We used weekly data on all-cause mortality and mean temperature from the period 1992-2021 and estimated the number of heat-related deaths in all of Germany, and in the northern, central, and southern regions of Germany, employing a generalized additive model (GAM). To characterize long-term trends, we compared the effect of heat on mortality over the decades. Our estimate reveals that the unusually high summer temperatures in Germany between 2018 and 2020 led to a statistically significant number of deaths in all three years. There were approximately 8700 heat-related deaths in 2018, 6900 in 2019, and 3700 in 2020. There was no statistically significant heat-related increase in deaths in 2021. A comparison of the past three decades reveals a slight overall decline in the effect of high temperatures on mortality. Although evidence suggests that there has been some adaptation to heat over the years, the data from 2018-2020 in particular show that heat events remain a significant threat to human health in Germany.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
2018-2020 were unusually warm years in Germany, and the summer of 2018 was the second warmest summer since record-keeping began in 1881. Higher temperatures regularly lead to increased mortality, particularly among the elderly.
METHODS
We used weekly data on all-cause mortality and mean temperature from the period 1992-2021 and estimated the number of heat-related deaths in all of Germany, and in the northern, central, and southern regions of Germany, employing a generalized additive model (GAM). To characterize long-term trends, we compared the effect of heat on mortality over the decades.
RESULTS
Our estimate reveals that the unusually high summer temperatures in Germany between 2018 and 2020 led to a statistically significant number of deaths in all three years. There were approximately 8700 heat-related deaths in 2018, 6900 in 2019, and 3700 in 2020. There was no statistically significant heat-related increase in deaths in 2021. A comparison of the past three decades reveals a slight overall decline in the effect of high temperatures on mortality.
CONCLUSION
Although evidence suggests that there has been some adaptation to heat over the years, the data from 2018-2020 in particular show that heat events remain a significant threat to human health in Germany.
Identifiants
pubmed: 35583101
pii: arztebl.m2022.0202
doi: 10.3238/arztebl.m2022.0202
pmc: PMC9639227
doi:
pii:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
451-457Commentaires et corrections
Type : CommentIn
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