Development and Internal Validation of a Risk Prediction Model for Acute Cardiovascular Morbidity in Preeclampsia.
Journal
The Canadian journal of cardiology
ISSN: 1916-7075
Titre abrégé: Can J Cardiol
Pays: England
ID NLM: 8510280
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
10 2022
10 2022
Historique:
received:
18
01
2022
revised:
05
05
2022
accepted:
08
05
2022
pubmed:
17
6
2022
medline:
12
10
2022
entrez:
16
6
2022
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Women with preeclampsia are at increased short-term risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes during pregnancy and the early postpartum period. We aimed to develop and internally validate a risk assessment tool to predict acute cardiovascular morbidity in preeclampsia. The study was conducted at an academic obstetrics hospital. Participants with preeclampsia at delivery from 2007 to 2017 were included. A model to predict acute cardiovascular morbidity at delivery and within 6 weeks after delivery was developed and evaluated. The primary composite outcome included pulmonary edema/acute heart failure, myocardial infarction, aneurysm, cardiac arrest/ventricular fibrillation, heart failure/arrest during surgery or procedure, cerebrovascular disorders, cardiogenic shock, conversion of cardiac rhythm, and difficult-to-control severe hypertension. We assessed model discrimination and calibration. We used bootstrapping for internal validation. A total of 4171 participants with preeclampsia were included. The final model comprised 8 variables. Predictors positively associated with acute cardiovascular morbidity (presented as odds ratio with 95% confidence interval) were: gestational age at delivery (20-36 weeks: 5.36 [3.67-7.82]; 37-38 weeks: 1.75 [1.16-2.64]), maternal age (≥ 40 years: 1.65 [1.00-2.72]; 35-39 years: 1.49 [1.07-2.09]), and previous caesarean delivery (1.47 [1.01-2.13]). The model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.72 (95% CI 0.69-0.74). Moreover, it was adequately calibrated and performed well on internal validation. This risk prediction tool identified women with preeclampsia at highest risk of acute cardiovascular morbidity. If externally validated, this tool may facilitate early interventions aimed at preventing adverse cardiovascular outcomes in pregnancy and postpartum.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
Women with preeclampsia are at increased short-term risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes during pregnancy and the early postpartum period. We aimed to develop and internally validate a risk assessment tool to predict acute cardiovascular morbidity in preeclampsia.
METHODS
The study was conducted at an academic obstetrics hospital. Participants with preeclampsia at delivery from 2007 to 2017 were included. A model to predict acute cardiovascular morbidity at delivery and within 6 weeks after delivery was developed and evaluated. The primary composite outcome included pulmonary edema/acute heart failure, myocardial infarction, aneurysm, cardiac arrest/ventricular fibrillation, heart failure/arrest during surgery or procedure, cerebrovascular disorders, cardiogenic shock, conversion of cardiac rhythm, and difficult-to-control severe hypertension. We assessed model discrimination and calibration. We used bootstrapping for internal validation.
RESULTS
A total of 4171 participants with preeclampsia were included. The final model comprised 8 variables. Predictors positively associated with acute cardiovascular morbidity (presented as odds ratio with 95% confidence interval) were: gestational age at delivery (20-36 weeks: 5.36 [3.67-7.82]; 37-38 weeks: 1.75 [1.16-2.64]), maternal age (≥ 40 years: 1.65 [1.00-2.72]; 35-39 years: 1.49 [1.07-2.09]), and previous caesarean delivery (1.47 [1.01-2.13]). The model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.72 (95% CI 0.69-0.74). Moreover, it was adequately calibrated and performed well on internal validation.
CONCLUSIONS
This risk prediction tool identified women with preeclampsia at highest risk of acute cardiovascular morbidity. If externally validated, this tool may facilitate early interventions aimed at preventing adverse cardiovascular outcomes in pregnancy and postpartum.
Identifiants
pubmed: 35709932
pii: S0828-282X(22)00315-4
doi: 10.1016/j.cjca.2022.05.007
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
1591-1599Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2022 Canadian Cardiovascular Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.